EGRAG CRYPTO warns a monthly close below the 44 EMA could push XRP toward the $0.65-$0.85 zone.
Whale transfers are drawing attention after more than 31 million XRP moved to Binance in a single day. On-chain analyst Darkfost flagged the activity, pointing to the largest holder cohorts as the primary source.
The combined value of the transfers sits close to $45 million, raising short-term concerns for XRP price recovery. Bitcoin’s continued range-bound trading has offered no support, leaving altcoins like XRP exposed to further downside pressure.
Whale transfers dominated the inflow breakdown shared by Darkfost across the largest wallet categories. Wallets holding over 1 million XRP sent 14,494,865 tokens to the exchange in a single day. The 100k-1M bracket followed closely, contributing an additional 14,236,825 XRP to the total.
Mid-tier and smaller wallets played a much smaller role in the movement. The 10k-100k cohort transferred 2,938,809 tokens, while the 1k-10k group sent just 73,630. Wallets under 1,000 XRP contributed only 6,543 to the overall inflow figure.
Binance was the chosen destination due to its position as the leading exchange for large-volume transactions. Its deep liquidity makes it the go-to platform when major holders look to execute sizable moves.
Darkfost warned that the collective transfer represents nearly $45 million in potential sell-side pressure. He noted that sustained selling from these cohorts could further delay any meaningful recovery for XRP in the near term.
Beyond the whale activity, technical structure is adding another layer of concern for XRP traders. Analyst EGRAG CRYPTO identified the 44 EMA on the monthly chart as the key level currently under test. He described the zone as a historical pain area for price action.
EGRAG outlined three scenarios depending on how XRP responds to the 44 EMA. A monthly close below it would break current structure and open a path toward the $0.65-$0.85 range. He referred to that zone as a final capitulation target rather than a support floor.
A hold of the 44 EMA could produce a relief bounce toward $2.20, though EGRAG cautioned against reading too much into that move. He labeled it a probable bull trap and not the beginning of a sustained uptrend.
For a genuine bull continuation to develop, XRP would need to achieve acceptance above the $2.20-$2.30 range. Only beyond that level would new all-time highs re-enter the conversation, according to EGRAG’s analysis.
He maintained a neutral to bearish short-term outlook while keeping his long-term macro view intact.
