At press time, XRP was trading around $2.82, down 1% from the previous day. Over the past week, the token has remained largely range-bound between $2.83 and $3.09, signaling consolidation rather than a sharp sell-off. Market sentiment in the altcoin space has weakened, leaving XRP roughly 22% below its July peak of $3.65.
Trading Activity Slows
Trading activity has tapered off as speculative positioning cools. Daily volume dropped to $4.38 billion, down nearly 38% from the previous day, and derivatives activity mirrored this slowdown.
Data from CoinGlass shows open interest slipping slightly to $8.47 billion, while futures volumes fell more than 40%. As traders await regulatory clarity later this month, the decline in open interest suggests many may be winding down leveraged positions.
ETF Decisions on the Horizon
October is shaping up to be a pivotal month for XRP, with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) expected to announce several ETF rulings between October 18 and 25. Major issuers, including Grayscale, Bitwise, and 21Shares, have applications pending for both spot and futures-based XRP funds.
Optimism had been building throughout September after the SEC approved simplified listing rules for commodity-based ETFs, a move seen as potentially opening the door for altcoin products beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum.
However, the current U.S. government shutdown, which began on October 1, has forced the SEC to furlough most of its employees, halting regular reviews and potentially delaying ETF decisions. Analysts note that this timing could be a setback for XRP, as the market had already priced in the potential for billions of dollars in inflows. Nevertheless, expectations for eventual approval remain high following Ripple’s 2024 settlement, which clarified XRP’s non-security status in secondary markets.
Technical Outlook
From a technical perspective, XRP is trading sideways. On the daily chart, the price hovers just below the middle Bollinger Band near $2.89, indicating a neutral phase as buyers and sellers remain evenly matched.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently sits at 43, indicating a neutral stance with no clear directional momentum. Short-term moving averages show a slight bearish tilt, as XRP trades below both the 20-day and 50-day EMAs. However, the longer-term outlook remains intact, with the 200-day moving average holding positive at $2.64.
Analysts suggest that XRP could target the $3.30 level, which previously acted as resistance earlier this year, if buying pressure strengthens and the price closes decisively above $3.10. Should ETF approvals come through, short-term price targets could range from $3.30 to $5, with the potential to surpass $12 by the end of Q4, reflecting historical ETF-driven rallies.
Conversely, a drop below $2.70 may trigger a deeper correction toward $2.50, where support from prior consolidation is expected to hold.
