Bloomberg’s James Seyffart suggests that final decisions may not be made until October.
In recent crypto news, the conversation around XRP ETF has been gaining traction once again and is starting to grab more eyeballs in the digital asset market.
Two prominent platforms, AI agent AIXBT and Elon Musk’s Grok, have weighed in on the chances of approval by July 2025.
Their comments came shortly after Ripple Labs officially dropped its cross-appeal in the lengthy legal battle with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
Market participants believe that this move may clear the way for the first spot XRP ETF linked to the coin.
Earlier this year, reports indicated that Ripple confirmed it was ending its cross-appeal in its case with the SEC.
This marked what many are calling a turning point in the long-standing legal battle.
The securities commission is expected to follow the same route, effectively drawing the case to a close.
This move has cleared up the regulatory haze around XRP, giving rise to fresh optimism across the market.
Still, the Artificial Intelligence tool AIXBT has pointed out that XRP stood as the only major asset with full regulatory clarity.
The platform predicted that ETF applications will be filed as early as July, a view echoed by Nate Geraci, President of the ETF Store.
Geraci described the situation as a closed chapter and believes that major asset managers, such as BlackRock, could now be poised to get involved.
Notably, the price of XRP spiked by nearly 5% after Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse confirmed it is dropping its cross-appeal in the SEC lawsuit.
He stated that the company was closing this legal chapter once and for all.
While that statement energized traders, AIXBT also warned that market participants might be rushing in too fast.
As per its response to a comment on the post,
“regulatory clarity + blackrock = pretty much unstoppable but those longs looking WAY too cozy rn.”
Elon Musk’s AI assistant, Grok, has aligned with AIXBT’s views to some extent.
However, the artificial intelligence took a more cautious approach regarding July expectations.
According to prediction platform Polymarket, the odds of an XRP ETF approval by July 31, 2025, currently sit at 45%
In contrast, approval odds rose sharply to 80-98% by year-end. This reflects the broader market consensus that Q4 is a more realistic window.
Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart agrees with the sentiment. He noted that while early approvals are technically possible by late June or early July.
However, the more likely timeline falls between September and October. The formal review process by the SEC assigns up to 240 days.
Still, key application deadlines for firms like Franklin Templeton stretch into October. There have already been delays in the SEC’s decisions for the XRP ETF.
For context, filings from Franklin Templeton and 21Shares were delayed in May and June.
These developments suggest that investors may need to temper their expectations in the short term while keeping a close eye on Q4.
Despite lower chances for a July approval, the overall direction remains positive for the XRP ETF.
Managers such as Bitwise, Grayscale, and Franklin Templeton have all filed applications. Which indicates that asset managers are optimistic about eventual approval.
Analysts point to Ripple’s recent legal win and the growing success of XRP ETF and futures products as indicators of the token’s improving profile.
Legal expert Jeremy Hogan cautioned that even if initial approval comes earlier than expected, the S-1 registration process could still extend the timeline by another 8 to 12 months.
This means that while sentiment is strong, the final launch dates for the XRP ETF could shift well into 2026, depending on the SEC’s response.
For now, XRP stands alone as a significant asset with regulatory clarity, a status that has attracted both optimism and caution.
With July just around the corner, the focus is now on whether BlackRock’s paperwork will hit the SEC’s desk on time.
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