With probable retests between $3,440 and $3,500 as well as a potential breakout to new all-time highs, the bias is still buy on dips in this gold price prediction.
As traders placed bets on a September interest rate drop by the Federal Reserve, gold prices continued their upward trajectory at the beginning of September 2025.
This gold price prediction analysis factors in recent gold price data, such as the fact that spot gold hit its highest level in almost four months today. XAUUSD is no2 $3,490 an ounce, and is still holding strong at the $3470 level.
A weaker US currency, falling Treasury yields, and safe-haven flows in the face of persistent macroeconomic uncertainty all contributed to this pump in gold prices.
Growing market confidence that the Fed may loosen policy sooner rather than later is reflected in the increased optimism for gold. Although the metal has been well-supported by this dovish tendency, investors are nevertheless wary ahead of this week’s important U.S. data releases, which might either support or contradict the optimistic narrative.
As long as gold stays above $3,345-$3,350, dip-buying is advised. The bias is still optimistic for the time being. A retest of $3,440 and ultimately $3,500+ could be possible if there is a breakout above $3,490.
In light of this, let’s talk about the crucial turning points for gold purchases and sales in this XAUUSD weekly forecast for September 1-September 5, 2025.
Key economic events impacting gold price prediction
Some significant U.S. economic reports are scheduled for release this week that are expected to impact XAUUSD.
Sep 2 – ISM Manufacturing PMI
A stronger-than-expected PMI could limit gold’s upside by signaling resilience in manufacturing, though staying below 50 still reflects contraction, which may support gold as a haven.
Sep 3 – JOLTS Job Openings
Fewer job openings would point to a cooling labor market, increasing dovish Fed expectations and favoring gold.
Sep 4 – ADP Jobs, Unemployment Claims, ISM Services PMI
A weaker ADP jobs figure would support gold as labor softness grows. Flat unemployment claims at 229K should have a limited impact, while a modestly stronger services PMI (50.5 vs. 50.1) could pressure gold slightly.
Sep 5 – NFP, Earnings, Unemployment Rate
If NFP comes in near 74K and unemployment ticks higher to 4.3%, markets may interpret it as labor market weakness, bullish for gold. However, steady wage growth at 0.3% could still raise inflation concerns and cap upside.
Overall Gold Outlook
This week’s data leans toward labor market softening and continued manufacturing weakness, suggesting a supportive backdrop for gold, though wage and services strength may limit rallies.
Gold HTF Overview
As mentioned in the previous XAUUSD weekly forecast, gold is nearing its external liquidity of $3500 which is also its all-time high, and investors can expect it to be taken out this week.
Gold forecast for September 1st to September 5th, 2025
As per the 1-hour timeframe, the first buying zone for gold is coming at the golden fib zone and POC level which is around $3447-$3436.
According to the 4h timeframe, the XAUUSD $3416-3404 is the order block and the place where the impulsive buy move started. Investors can expect price to retest and provide a good bounce from this level.
Trading Strategies & Investment Recommendation
To conclude, gold can give both buys and sells this week; however, buys are strongly preferred over sells. Lower time frames are suggesting sells, while higher time frames are still favoring a buy position in gold.
Resistance Levels
* $3416-3404 – 4h order block and the start of the bullish rally
