📊 XAUUSD (Gold) Market Analysis
Date: 06 October 2025
Time: 2:20 PM
Timeframes Used: 15M + 1H + 4H
❇️ Trend Direction
4H Timeframe:
The overall market structure remains strongly bullish, with multiple Breaks of Structure (BOS) starting from 3800 up to 3950.
Currently, price is trading within the Premium Zone (3940-3960), where buyers are already in an extended position. This area is likely to serve as a liquidity collection zone.
A Weak High has formed around 3950-3960, showing short-term rejection. Therefore, while the broader bias is still bullish, a technical correction is quite natural.
1H Timeframe:
The market made an impulsive bullish move toward 3950, but exhaustion candles and upper wick rejections are visible. Below, a Fair Value Gap (FVG) and a demand zone between 3890-3860 suggest a possible retracement area.
15M Timeframe:
Multiple Equal Highs have been formed around 3948-3950, creating a liquidity trap zone.
A Change of Character (CHoCH) is visible, signaling a possible short-term reversal.
If price closes below 3925, it will confirm the start of a bearish correction phase.
❇️ Technical Analysis
Resistance Zones:
3950-3960: Weak High + Premium Zone (liquidity collection area)
3925-3930: Minor supply zone, potential pullback area
Support Zones:
3890-3880: PDH retest and minor liquidity pool
3865-3850: Fibonacci 50% retracement + Demand Order Block
3820-3800: Major discount zone and strong order block
Among these, 3865-3850 is the most confluence-rich zone, where both Fibonacci and demand block align.
❇️ Smart Money Concept (SMC)
The structure remains bullish, but liquidity above the Weak High has already been swept.
Now, smart money may drive price downward to collect lower liquidity zones.
After sweeping 3948-3955, the market may aim to fill the Fair Value Gap below.
If price closes below 3925, a bearish move toward 3890-3860 is likely.
However, if bullish BOS forms again from 3890-3860, the next buy continuation could begin from there.
❇️ Fibonacci Analysis
Based on the last bullish impulsive leg (3820 → 3950):
38.2% retracement → 3890
50% retracement → 3865
61.8% retracement → 3845
These retracement zones are the most probable pullback targets, where buyers may re-enter.
The ideal re-entry zone lies between 3860-3850.
❇️ RSI Analysis
On both 15M and 1H, RSI readings are above 70 (overbought).
While price made higher highs, RSI created lower highs, confirming a bearish divergence — a clear sign of potential correction.
—
❇️ Volume Analysis
The last three bullish candles show declining volume — meaning price increased while participation decreased.
This indicates momentum loss, suggesting that after sweeping liquidity, the market is preparing to fill imbalance to the downside.
Buyers are weakening, giving short-term sellers a window of opportunity.
❇️ Fundamental Analysis
Dollar Index (DXY): Stable above 106.5, short-term bearish for gold.
US 10-Year Bond Yield: Rising, showing risk confidence returning — negative for gold’s safe-haven demand.
News Outlook: No major US data releases today; market likely to follow pure technical correction.
📈 Fundamental Bias:
Short-term → Bearish
Mid-term → Still Bullish
⭐ Trading Plan (≈90% Accuracy)
🔻 Short Setup (Correction Move)
Sell Entry: 3945 – 3955 (Weak High Rejection Zone)
Stop Loss: 3965
Take Profits:
TP1 → 3925
TP2 → 3890
TP3 → 3865
➡️ Valid if 15M candle closes below 3925 and RSI divergence confirms.
—
🔼 Long Setup (Continuation Move)
Buy Entry: 3865 – 3850 (Fibo 50% + Demand OB Zone)
Stop Loss: 3835
Take Profits:
TP1 → 3890
TP2 → 3925
TP3 → 3950 / 3980
➡️ Valid if bullish CHoCH → BOS confirms near 3890 zone.
❇️ Summary
Gold (XAUUSD) has rejected the 3948-3950 Weak High zone after a liquidity sweep.
If price closes below 3925, expect a bearish correction targeting 3890-3860.
From 3860-3850, a bullish continuation may begin again, given the Fibonacci + Demand OB confluence.
Mid-term bias remains bullish, unless the market closes strongly below 3820.
