XAUUSD Analysis for the New Week: Sideways Accumulation Awaiting Big Waves – Detailed Trading Strategy
Hello trading community!
Last week, XAUUSD (Gold) moved as predicted within a narrow range, indicating a tug-of-war between buyers and sellers. However, the dominant trend on larger time frames remains bullish. At the start of the new week, Gold is likely to continue accumulating before making stronger breakthroughs. This article will provide a detailed analysis of technical and fundamental factors, along with specific trading strategies.
📊 Technical Analysis
Based on the H1 chart, we can clearly see the following important price structures:
Ascending Channel: Gold is still moving steadily within an ascending channel, indicating that the buying trend remains dominant in the medium term. The lower support line of the channel will be a crucial support area for buyers.
Key Support Zone: The $3970 – $3974 price range is acting as a solid support zone. This is the confluence area of the lower channel line and a dense volume profile zone, showing strong buyer interest here. The “Buy test support” scenario as shown in the image is entirely feasible.
Resistance Zone: The $4060 area and further up the old peak around $4080 (corresponding to the Fibonacci Extension 1.618 zone) are significant barriers. Sellers may become active in these areas.
Volume Profile Indicator (VPVR): The Point of Control is around $3982, further reinforcing the importance of the nearest support zone. Any breakdown below this area could trigger a short-term sell-off towards the $3946 zone.
📰 Fundamental Analysis
The market is influenced by mixed information flows, creating instability and reinforcing Gold’s sideways scenario:
⚠️ Hawkish Stance from the FED: Recent statements by Mr. Musallem (FED) indicate concerns about inflation potentially rising further. He emphasized the need to control inflation expectations, even at the cost of short-term labor market fluctuations. This implies that the FED may continue to maintain tight monetary policy, putting pressure on Gold prices (due to a stronger USD).
📈 Risk Asset Frenzy: Bitcoin reaching the $111,000 mark raises concerns about a potential asset “bubble” and a looming crisis. In this scenario, Gold could benefit as a safe-haven asset, attracting capital flows when market risks increase.
The contradiction between the FED’s policy and market risk aversion sentiment is the reason for Gold’s sideways accumulation.
🎯 Trading Strategy
Based on the above analysis, we can develop two trading scenarios for the upcoming week. The main priority remains to buy along the trend.
Scenario 1: Buy at Support (BUY) 📈
Entry: Look to buy when the price adjusts to the $3974 – $3971 zone.
Stop Loss (SL): $3965 (Below the safe support zone).
Take Profit (TP): $3985 – $3999 – $4020 – $4050 – $4080.
Scenario 2: Sell at Resistance (SELL) 📉
Entry: Look to sell when the price approaches the strong resistance zone $4077 – $4080.
Stop Loss (SL): $4086 (False breakout above the peak).
Take Profit (TP): $4055 – $4020 – $4000 – $3970.
Summary
The main trend for Gold remains upward, but in the short term, the price may continue to move sideways within the $3970 – $4080 range to accumulate. The optimal strategy is to buy at key support areas and consider short-term sell orders at strong resistance zones.
Always remember to manage your capital tightly as the market always holds unexpected fluctuations. Wishing traders a successful new week!
Note: This article is for reference only and is not investment advice.
