March 01, (THEWILL) — Incumbent President Bola Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress, APC, looks unstoppable ahead of the 2027 General Election, which the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, said in a revised timetable will take between January 16 and February 6, 2027, an almost two months’ cutback in the previous timetable.
With the formal defection of Governor Umaru Fintiri of Adamawa State from the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, to APC on Friday, the governing party now has 30 governors on its platform.
More defections are likely, THEWILL has learned. Zamfara State Governor Dauda Lawal and his Abia counterpart, Alex Otti are said to be safely on APC’s radar.
Currently, only Governor Seyi Makinde of Oyo State and Bala Mohammed of Bauchi are safely outside APC’s reach. The Governor of Anambra State, Chukwuma Soludo, has publicly declared his support for President Bola Tinubu.
Recent developments have further lent credence to his pro – Tinubu stand. After a courtesy visit by Obinna Iyiegbu, alias Obi Cubana, to Soludo last Wednesday, the governor’s daughter, Adaora, emerged as Anambra Woman Leader of City Boys Movement, a political support group of the President.
However, the changes in the election dates followed the repeal of the Electoral Act 2022 and the enactment of the Electoral Act 2026, signed into law by President Bola Tinubu on Wednesday, February 19, 2026, three days after INEC had unveiled an election time-table based on the old 2022 law, affirming the traditional dates of February 20, 2027 for the presidential and National Assembly polls and March 6, 2027 for the governorship and state Houses of Assembly polls.
The new Act has compressed timelines and shifted days of election that has created tension among political parties.
For example, Electoral Act 2026 mandated parties to hold political primaries between April 23 and May 30 2026. Parties face disqualification from fielding candidates if they fail to submit a digital membership register to INEC at least 21 days to any primary, congress and convention, meaning that all these requirements must take place in March, a few days hence.
In this scenario, crisis prone parties are endangered.
And for any politician seeking re-election on their platform, the APC bandwagon becomes the best alternative.
Apart from 30 governors on its platform, the governing party also maintains an overwhelming majority in the National Assembly. Already, 74 out of 109 Senators and 258 out of 360 Representatives are in its ranks.
Coupled with these feats is the party’s control of the Federal Government which has overreaching powers across the country with over 60 items in an exclusive legislative list, a huge election war chest and a politically astute President who started playing the 2027 election card right from the day he was sworn into office on May 19, 2023.
A day after leaders of the opposition African Democratic Congress and the New Nigeria Peoples Party mounted fresh pressure on the National Assembly, demanding an immediate amendment of the Electoral Act 2026, which they described as anti-democratic and flawed ahead of the 2027 general election, the National Publicity Secretary of the ADC, Mallam Bolaji Abdullahi, fleshed out the party’s position.
Speaking on Channels TV’s Politics Today at the weekend, Abdullahi, said the identified and contentious requirements were practically impossible for opposition political parties to meet.
“It is very clear, when INEC released its timetable, that some of the requirements we will need to meet to be able to field candidates for the 2027 election, as contained in the Electoral Act, are almost impossible for us to meet,” Abdullahi said, adding: “What the law expects us to do is that within the next 32 days or so, we will have a digitalised membership register in all the 36 states of the federation which we will be able to submit to INEC while giving them notice of our congresses or convention. It is almost practically impossible for us to do this. We know for a fact that the ruling party, APC, commenced membership registration in February 2025 and actually hired consultants to help them develop a digital membership register ahead of the 2027 election. What took them more than one year to do is what they expect us to do within one month.”
Even so, stakeholders say the opposition is yet to get its act together in a way that threatens the overwhelming presence of APC and President Tinubu in the country.
One of the umbrella political platforms in the country, has continued to express grave concern over the fragmented state of opposition politics in Nigeria and unequivocally warned that an opposition in disarray would stand no chance against President Tinubu and the APC.
Deputy National Publicity Secretary of CNPP, Comrade James Ezema, told THEWILL at the weekend that the APC remains a very hard nut for any single opposition party to crack in a presidential contest, particularly against an incumbent administration with the advantages of structure, coordination and political reach.
“Consequently, we emphasised that unity among opposition parties is not merely desirable but absolutely essential if there is to be any credible attempt to unseat the incumbent President in the 2027 presidential election. Recent political developments, particularly the just concluded FCT Area Council election, have further vindicated the CNPP’s position. The outcome of that election demonstrated once again that the APC’s strength lies not only in its internal cohesion but also in the inability of opposition parties to present a united front,” he said.
Rather than building a common strategy, he maintained, opposition actors appeared more preoccupied with internal calculations, including contestations over future presidential tickets, which weakened campaign coordination and diluted the overall challenge to the ruling party. “The result was predictable: the APC maintained dominance, the PDP trailed behind and the coalition platform under the ADC failed to translate its perceived potential into electoral success due largely to the absence of collective discipline and shared purpose.
The CNPP therefore maintains that if the opposition parties truly intend to defeat President Tinubu in the 2027 presidential election, they must put aside personal ambitions, close ranks and build a genuine, structured, and disciplined alliance. “Without unity, the 2027 election will not be a contest but a confirmation of the status quo.”
Amid their clamour for appropriate regulatory laws, presidential aspirants have started to emerge on the platform of the ADC. Leaders of the party in the South-South geo-political zone at the weekend agreed to support the presidential aspiration of former Rivers State governor, Rotimi Amaechi.
Chief John Odigie-Oyegun who disclosed the information on behalf of the ADC South-South leaders during a consultative session in Benin-City, the Edo State capital, stated, among other things, that, “We are glad that our son, Rotimi Amaechi, took advantage of the meeting to brief us formally of his intention to run for the presidency of our great nation. We are pleased and can report that an unanimous decision was taken to give him all the support that he needs in the pursuit of his ambition.”
In line with the party’s plan to declare its presidential ticket open to all aspirants from every geo-political zone of the country, Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi, who had never hidden their presidential aspirations, are expected to formally toe Amaechi pattern of seeking geo-political support in the days ahead. The three of them are expected to vie for the party’s presidential ticket at its convention. Abdullahi, hinted at this possibility during a live X open space discussion observed by THEWILL on Saturday, January 24, 2026.
“I spent time talking to His Excellency Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi and Rotimi Amaechi who have indicated interest in vying for the presidential ticket of our party, as well as the likes of Mallam Nasir El-Rufai,” Abdullahi said, adding: “None of them is opposed to the idea of picking the party’s presidential candidate through the consensus option.”
In the event of any of these aspirants picking the ADC’s ticket, pundits paint different scenarios in the 2027 presidential poll.
The 2027 general election would present Atiku Abubakar another opportunity to square off with President Tinubu for the second time. Abubakar contested the 2023 poll on the platform of the PDP and came second, having polled 6,984,520 votes as against Tinubu’s 8,794,726 votes. He defeated the APC in 12 states of Osun, Yobe, Katsina, Adamawa, Taraba, Kaduna, Bayelsa, Sokoto, Akwa Ibom Bauchi, Kebbi and Gombe, while the President won in 12 states: Ekiti, Ogun, Oyo, Kwara, Ondo, Jigawa, Benue, Niger, Kogi, Zamfara, Rivers and Borno. As at March 1, 2026, all these states collapsed into the APC with all the governors, local government areas and House of Assembly members. How Atiku Abubakar, as ADC presidential candidate, hopes to confront this political reality remains to be seen. But he remains unfazed by the situation. In a statement made available to THEWILL on Friday, he said that the upcoming election will be a referendum on the government’s policies and reforms which he said have impoverished Nigerians, who are more than likely to vote against the APC.
Reacting to the defection of Governor Fintiri, Atiku, who said that political realignments are not new and that the governor was free to choose his path, just like some of his children have done recently, added that, “no amount of coercion can erase the daily hardship Nigerians face — rising hunger, crushing poverty, worsening insecurity and mass unemployment caused by failed economic policies. “What will the APC campaign on in 2027 — hunger? hardship? hopelessness?”
Obi who was candidate of the 2023 presidential candidate of Labour Party, which he joined three months to electioneering and was taunted for lack of political structure, surprised bookmakers by emerging third in the election, beating Tinubu in Lagos and winning in 12 states: Enugu, Lagos, Nasarawa, Delta, Imo, Cross Rivers, Ebonyi, Anambra, FCT, Abia, Edo and Plateau, polling 6,101,533 votes. Today these states are all in the firm grip of the APC, supporting Tinubu’s re-election. Moreover, Tinubu has consolidated his position in all of them through the reach of his foot soldiers like the City Boy Movement run by his son Seyi, palliative distribution in cash and kind through his wife Oluremi’s Renewed Hope Initiative.
Adamant, Obi says there is no turning back. He would run because “operation rescue Nigeria is not about me. It is about the destiny of our children and the consequences of decades of poor governance,” he said at an Obidient Movement conference in Uyo, Akwa Ibom State on February 15, 2026.
“I will contest the coming election. Nigeria deserves a credible choice and a transparent process.” He banks his fate on the electronic transmission of the results in real time.
He said, “Democracy must work. Results must be transmitted online in real time. Whoever fails to transmit results will be held accountable.”
Unlike Atiku Abubakar and Obi, Amaechi is yet to test his popularity as a presidential candidate of any party, apart from contesting the APC presidential primary in 2022 alongside President Tinubu. He emerged a distant second with 316 votes behind Tinubu who polled 1,271 votes to defeat 12 other aspirants. In the ensuing election, Amaechi failed to deliver his home state, Rivers for the party. His emergence as ADC candidate would be a hard sell for the electorate.
Other combinations and permutations that have dominated the political space recently are the VP pairing. An example is the possibility of an Atiku/Obi ticket and an Obi/Kwakwanso ticket.
When they paired during the 2019 general election on the platform of the PDP, Atiku Abubakar and Obi were defeated by incumbent President Muhammadu Buhari. They polled 11,262,978 million votes as against 15, 191, 847 million votes for Buhari. Buhari won in 19 states while Atiku/Obi won in 18 states. History is about to repeat itself, according to some party sources, who maintain that the voting strength of both former presidential candidates could pose a potent threat to President Tinubu’s seeming invincibility. In addition is the identity issue it may cause for the APC.
According to sources, the Muslim/Muslim ticket will assume a political time bomb for the governing party in the face of the controversial religious framing of the insecurity in Nigeria as Christian versus Muslim by the United States, a perspective which the Federal Government has denied but has refused to go away because politicians themselves are feeding it. Until the APC had to issue a statement to stop its official from debating it, particularly after Minister of Art, Culture and Creative and Creative Economy, Hannatu Musawa, raised the tempo by claiming that dropping Vice President Kashim Shettima, would cause widespread disenchantment in the North, the debate heated the polity to no end. An Atiku/Obi, -Muslim and Christian- ticket will certainly put APC on the spot, considering the heightened killings and the proclivity of politicians to leverage any topic that give them advantage over rivals. How APC reacts to it will determined the impact on its campaign and success at the polls.
The Obi/Kwankwaso ticket is also said to be in the offing. It was speculated during the 2023 poll until Kwankwaso debunked it and went ahead to run as a candidate of the New Nigeria Peoples Party, NNPP. Kwankwaso’s mass appeal with his Kwankwassiya movement that reaches beyond Kano to Jigawa, Bauchi and Nasarawa States and Obi’s Obidient Movement with nationwide presence would present a formidable combination against any rival in the 2027 poll. The problem, however, is that Kano State, the only structure on which Kwankwaso stood has been removed with the defection of his godson, Governor Abba Yusuf to the APC.
Despite the Oyo State High Court ruling at the weekend, which validated the February 15-16, 2026 Ibadan elective National Convention of the PDP and confirmed the Saminu Turaki (SAN) led National Working Committee (NCW), the party is yet to overcome its leadership crisis given a pending judgement at the Appeal Court. Analysts say that the compressed INEC timelines may not favour the party ahead of the 2027 election, thereby ruling the party out of contention.
Given these scenarios ahead of the 2027 elections, Rotimi Amaechi paints a telling challenge facing the opposition. At last Wednesday’s gathering of opposition figures against sections in the Electoral Act 2026, the former Transportation Minister noted that the opposition was its major problem.
He said, “Actually, Tinubu is not our problem; the opposition is the problem of the opposition. The first thing we must know is that we must separate ourselves from the government in power. Tinubu is not our problem, watch his government, watch his strategy to win elections. His strategy is simple; his pattern is simple. He tries something today, you are weak. He puts something bigger, you are weaker. So, we need to focus on our strategy.”
