Bitcoin analyst Willy Woo believes Michael Saylor’s company, MicroStrategy (MSTR), won’t need to liquidate any of its Bitcoin holdings to cover debt in the next major crypto market downturn.
“MSTR liquidation in the next bear market? I doubt it,” Woo wrote in a post on X Wednesday.
MicroStrategy’s debt primarily consists of convertible senior notes, which the company plans to settle as they come due using cash, common stock, or a combination, at its discretion.
Strategy safe from liquidation in next bear market
By the Sept. 15, 2027 holder put date, MicroStrategy will have approximately $1.01 billion in debt maturing. Woo notes that to avoid selling Bitcoin to repay this debt, MicroStrategy’s stock would need to trade above $183.19.
This stock price roughly implies a Bitcoin price of around $91,502, assuming a 1x multiple of net asset value (mNAV).
Bitcoin analyst The Bitcoin Therapist suggested that MicroStrategy (MSTR) would only need to sell Bitcoin if the next market downturn is exceptionally severe.
“Would be one hell of a sustained bear market to see any liquidation for Strategy,” they added. MicroStrategy currently holds around 641,205 BTC, valued at roughly $64 billion at the time of publication, according to Saylor Tracker.
MicroStrategy’s stock closed Tuesday at a seven-month low of $246.99, down nearly 6.7% for the day, while Bitcoin is trading around $101,377, down 9.92% over the past week, per CoinMarketCap.
Woo sees a small risk of partial liquidation
Although Woo does not anticipate a liquidation in the next bear market, he cautioned that a partial sell-off could occur if Bitcoin fails to rise strongly during the projected 2028 bull market.
“Ironically, there’s a chance of a partial liquidation if BTC doesn’t climb in value fast enough in an assumed 2028 bull market,” Woo said.
Some crypto executives, including ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood and Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong, have predicted that Bitcoin could reach $1 million by 2030.
