Solana saw a brief rally after news broke that the first-ever Solana ETF with staking capabilities is set to launch on July 2, 2025.
According to data from crypto.news, SOL jumped nearly 6% on Monday, reaching an intraday high of $158.30 before pulling back to around $152.60 by press time. Despite the dip, the token remains roughly 44% above its year-to-date low, with a market capitalization now exceeding $81.6 billion.
The rally was fueled by investor enthusiasm surrounding the upcoming debut of the REX-Osprey SOL + Staking ETF, which will be the first U.S. spot ETF to offer on-chain staking rewards in addition to price exposure. This marks a significant shift from earlier crypto ETFs, which have typically excluded staking due to regulatory and structural hurdles.
However, the initial optimism has since cooled, as market participants reassess the ETF’s potential impact.
One major factor behind the tempered sentiment is the modest size of Grayscale’s Solana Trust (GSOL), which has existed for over 43 months but currently manages only about $75 million in assets. In contrast, Grayscale’s Ethereum Trust (ETHE) had reached $10 billion in assets just one month before the launch of Ethereum’s spot ETF in July 2024.
Signs of caution are also emerging in the derivatives market. Data from Hyperliquid shows weakening momentum for Solana, the sixth-largest crypto asset by market cap. Although long positions slightly outnumber shorts in volume, bearish traders are currently in profit by over $6.71 million, while long traders are collectively down more than $707,000.
The mixed sentiment highlights growing uncertainty among investors as they await the ETF’s launch.
This imbalance suggests that many long positions were entered amid the ETF-driven hype and are now sitting at a loss, reinforcing a cautious short-term outlook for Solana.
Adding to the concerns, the total market capitalization of stablecoins on the Solana network has dropped from $13 billion in April to approximately $10.5 billion at press time. This decline signals shrinking on-chain liquidity and waning demand for transactional activity within the ecosystem.
Moreover, despite the recent buzz around Solana-based memecoins, the network’s revenue has plunged by over 90% since January, highlighting a broader downturn in protocol usage.
Taken together, these factors may continue to place downward pressure on Solana’s price, potentially limiting the impact of the upcoming ETF launch.
Solana price analysis
On the 1-day USDT chart, Solana (SOL) is retracing toward the descending trendline it previously broke— the same level that triggered today’s rally. A drop back below this line could indicate a potential trend reversal and reignite bearish momentum.
Solana’s price action has also slipped below the 50-day simple moving average—a widely watched dynamic support level—signaling weakening short-term momentum and adding to an increasingly bearish technical outlook.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI), which climbed to 55 following the ETF announcement, has since dropped back to 51, suggesting that initial buying enthusiasm has waned.
From a technical perspective, SOL now appears likely to retest support at $143.10, which coincides with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. A firm break below this zone could pave the way for further downside, with the next major support near $126.48—the local low from last month.
Adding to the bearish pressure is the looming unlock of over $585 million worth of SOL in the next two months, which could lead to increased selling and further weigh on price performance.
That said, in crypto markets—where sentiment can often trump fundamentals—strong inflows on day one of the REX-Osprey SOL + Staking ETF launch could still spark renewed demand and temporarily override bearish signals.
