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Will Fed’s potential rate cut drive Bitcoin prices higher this September?

Last updated: September 3, 2025 2:20 pm
Published: 3 months ago
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September historically sees selling pressure, but institutional investors are accumulating Bitcoin at record levels.

Bitcoin (BTC) traded on Wednesday at approximately $111,190, showing a modest increase of about 1.86 percent from the previous day’s price of $109,163. This performance marks a significant rise of more than 88 percent compared to its value a year ago, which stood near $59,109. Bitcoin’s steady upward trend reflects ongoing investor confidence and continuing demand despite the inherent volatility risks commonly associated with cryptocurrencies.

Market participants are broadly anticipating a 25 basis point rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) this month, a move expected to inject liquidity into the financial system and put downward pressure on the U.S. dollar. This macroeconomic environment is viewed by many analysts as supportive of risk assets like Bitcoin, which often benefit from a weaker dollar and cheaper borrowing costs.

Several experts highlight that the Fed’s potential easing provides a tailwind for Bitcoin’s price recovery following the recent seasonal weakness typical in September. Historically, September has been a difficult month for cryptocurrencies, often marked by selling pressure tied to fiscal-year-end portfolio rebalancing and tax-loss harvesting by institutional investors. This “Red September” pattern has frequently led to price declines. However, in 2025, this trend is being challenged. Institutional investors appear to be accumulating Bitcoin at record levels, as evidenced by the highest number of whale addresses holding over 100 BTC ever recorded. Their accumulation suggests confidence that monetary easing will re-ignite the crypto bull market.

The proposed September rate cut is expected to lower Treasury yields and stimulate liquidity inflows into risk-on assets. Analysts at BlockByte and other firms expect the Fed move could trigger a significant crypto bull run accompanied by an altcoin rotation, which means capital moving from Bitcoin to altcoins like Ethereum, which is benefiting from protocol upgrades and network scalability improvements. The anticipation of more accommodative US monetary policy has diminished the dollar’s strength, which historically correlates inversely with Bitcoin’s price.

Bitcoin futures and basis trade dynamics also reflect this shift: open interest on futures contracts has declined but stands to revive if liquidity conditions improve post-rate cut. Lower implied volatility in Bitcoin futures has currently limited aggressive trading strategies, but a Fed cut may bolster volatility and futures premiums, attracting more institutional participation.

Read more: Bitcoin reaches record high of $122k as institutional adoption accelerates ahead of Crypto Week

The Trump-backed World Liberty Financial (WLFI) token made significant headlines on Monday, September 1, 2025, when it began trading on major cryptocurrency exchanges, quickly drawing attention in the crypto space. The token, promoted as part of a broader vision to create a “new era of finance,” was launched by the Trump family during the 2024 presidential campaign, with former President Donald Trump and his sons playing key roles in the project. The WLFI token’s debut injected approximately $5 billion in paper wealth into the Trump family’s holdings, as they control around 22.5 billion tokens valued at roughly $0.23 each at the time of trading’s early days.

World Liberty Financial operates as a decentralized finance platform that also introduced a stablecoin pegged to the US dollar. Initially, WLFI tokens were sold privately to accredited investors at prices between 1.5 and 5 cents during various rounds. The Trumps and affiliated entities hold a large portion of these tokens, though their holdings remain locked under vesting schedules and cannot be sold immediately. Public trading commenced only recently after token holders voted to allow secondary trading, with early investors permitted to liquidate up to 20 percent of their holdings.

The WLFI token’s market introduction has been marked by sharp volatility — opening above $0.30, dropping to lows near $0.21, and stabilizing around $0.23. Despite the initial price drop, the token stands as one of the top 50 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization, and the Trump family’s stake represents their largest contribution to wealth, exceeding $5 billion on paper. The family also receives a considerable share of revenues from token sales, estimated at over $500 million since the project’s inception.

WLFI represents an alternative crypto venture backed by a high-profile political figure, aiming to leverage blockchain to redefine finance yet distinct from Bitcoin’s pioneer role as a decentralized digital gold. While Bitcoin remains the dominant cryptocurrency with universal recognition for value storage and decentralized monetary policy, WLFI is more focused on governance mechanisms and community voting power embedded in its tokenomics. Its rapid rise and high-profile backing have fueled debate over the interplay between political influence and crypto innovation.

Alongside Bitcoin’s performance, other major cryptocurrencies also displayed notable price movements. Ethereum (ETH), the second-largest cryptocurrency by market value, traded around $4,326 with an average transaction fee just under 90 cents. The Ethereum network’s robust daily transaction volume, averaging 1.69 million transactions, underpins its position as a leading platform for decentralized applications.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin Cash (BCH) was priced near $585, Litecoin (LTC) was trading near $112, and Ripple (XRP) hovered around $2.86.

The cryptocurrency market remains highly volatile, with Bitcoin historically experiencing substantial price fluctuations.

Despite climbs, short-term price swings are common in this space, influenced by global economic factors, regulatory developments, and market sentiment. For example, in earlier years, Bitcoin has seen weekly losses reaching up to 20 percent, alongside even sharper declines among other altcoins. This volatility highlights the speculative nature of the market and the balance investors must maintain between risk and opportunity.

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