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The Bitcoin price could experience major swings this Friday as billions of dollars in options are set to expire. A crypto market expert has warned that the scale of this event could trigger “something big,” potentially affecting both volatility and the actions of retail and institutional investors.
On Monday, crypto analyst NoLimit signaled that this upcoming Friday could be a historic moment for Bitcoin. According to the expert, over $23.6 billion worth of Bitcoin options are scheduled to expire on December 26, marking the largest options expiry the market has ever seen. The analyst has stated that anyone with crypto holdings should pay close attention.
NoLimit explained that an options expiry involves leveraged bets on Bitcoin’s price. He stated that calls are wagers that the price will rise, while puts predict it will fall. The analyst also emphasized that when these options expire, they either become worthless or force buying and selling in the spot market to hedge the positions.
He also highlighted that with $23.6 billion in options expiring in a single day, a massive amount of risk will be removed from dealer books all at once. According to the analysis, this risk offloading is a key driver of market volatility, as the magnitude of the expiry is unprecedented.
Looking at the data, previous year-end expiries were significantly smaller. In 2021, the options expiry was around $6 billion, followed by $2.4 billion in 2022. It climbed to $11 billion in 2023 and reached $19.8 billion in 2024. NoLimit has suggested that this year’s jump to $23.6 billion represents a significant shift in market dynamics.
The analyst pointed out that retail investors no longer dominate the market. He stated that institutional-sized risk is now being repriced in real time, and this Friday could trigger significant price movements. NoLimit also suggested that the scale and timing of the expiry make it a critical event for traders and investors in the market.
In his analysis, NoLimit outlined the specific reasons why this Friday truly matters as Bitcoin’s $23.6 billion options prepare to expire. He explained that dealers are heavily hedged around key strikes, and once expiry hits, those hedges are removed. As a result, the shift can trigger sharp moves for Bitcoin in either direction.
The analyst noted that current market conditions could further amplify the impact. According to his analysis, Bitcoin’s liquidity is extremely low during the holiday week, and less volume typically means each order has more influence. As a result, the expert stated that a violent price move could occur even without major news.
NoLimit also noted that much of Bitcoin’s Open Interest is concentrated near the major psychological levels. Once the expiry passes, this open interest disappears entirely. He explained that this is why markets often experience sideways trading leading into expiry, followed by a clear directional move shortly afterward. The analyst added that volatility is the key setup this week. He says the crucial moment to watch is the Bitcoin price after the expiry, not before.
