Welcome to the US Crypto News Morning Briefing — your essential rundown of the most important developments in crypto for the day ahead.
Grab a coffee for a read on how Bitcoin (BTC) and the broader financial market are responding to geopolitical tension. Concerns arise about the US involvement in the war, with Iran turning down calls for surrender.
BeInCrypto highlighted the implication of the US getting involved in the Israel-Iran war, citing a potential 10-20% drop as investors shift into risk-off mode and exit volatile assets.
However, some experts hold a contrary opinion. Arthur Aziziov, founder and investor at B2 Ventures, cited Bitcoin’s dominance levels.
“If Bitcoin starts to drop without a corresponding decline in its dominance, the impact on the altcoin market could be quite painful. Given the current dominance levels, I wouldn’t expect a sharp drop of 10-15% in the short term,” Aziziov told BeInCrypto.
Against this backdrop, the Bitcoin price is already weak, slipping back to the $103,000 range after testing $105,000 on Wednesday.
Is the drop tied to mounting geopolitical tension? Likely so, amid the stand-off between the US and Iran. Investors appear to be exercising caution, while big players like Tether position themselves strategically ahead of the FOMC.
“If no positive sentiment emerges in the near future, Bitcoin could very well retreat into the $90,000-$84,000 range. On the other hand, if a positive backdrop does appear — particularly if the Fed signals a rate cut — then Bitcoin is likely to reach $128,000 by the end of the year,” Aziziov added.
However, the B2 Ventures executive says we should not expect any major surges or corrections for the short-term price movement.
“The key levels to watch are $112,000 and $100,500. If we lose support at $100,500, the price is likely to slide toward $95,000 and lower. But if we break above $112,000, upward momentum will likely continue,” he added.
Meanwhile, analysts highlight an interesting turnout in the S&P 500. The stock market index, which tracks the stock performance of 500 leading companies listed on US stock exchanges, is showing a notable lack of volatility.
This turnout is surprising, given concerns of escalating tensions between Iran and the US. The tensions concern Iran’s missile preparations and US bomber movements. Meanwhile, Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has rejected calls to surrender.
Against this backdrop, the S&P 500’s performance contradicts the typical market impact of geopolitical conflicts on market volatility. It suggests markets may be desensitized to saber-rattling after years of similar events.
Nevertheless, some analysts say markets often require a direct economic impact to react significantly. According to JPMorgan, one such force would be rising oil prices, which could push the US CPI to 5%, as indicated in a recent US Crypto News publication.
The unconventional performance of the S&P 500 may also validate Tucker Carlson’s warning, which challenged the narrative of inevitable US dominance.
“I’m really afraid that my country is going to be further weakened by this [involvement],” Sputnik reported, citing Carlson in a podcast with former Trump advisor Steven Bannon.
As a staunch Trump supporter, Carlson’s statement reflects a shift in geopolitical risk perception reflected in prevailing market trends.
Here’s a summary of more US crypto news to follow today:
