LAGOS – As global food prices decline in 2025, many Nigerians see no relief at the market stalls.
The World Bank’s latest June 2025 Food Security Update lays bare a stark contrast between international trends and domestic realities, warning that while global grain prices have fallen on the back of record harvests and strong exports, local food prices in Nigeria remain painfully high due to currency depreciation, poor transport networks, and systemic structural failures.
The report shows that the world is not suffering from scarcity. Instead, global production has been robust.
Abundant harvests in the Black Sea region, especially from Russia and Ukraine, have pushed wheat prices down internationally.
Maize and rice prices have also fallen thanks to strong crop production and the easing of export restrictions.
According to the World Bank, its agricultural and cereal price indices declined by 1 percent month-on-month in May.
Maize prices fell by 4 percent, rice by 1 percent, although wheat prices rose slightly by 3 percent on concerns over dry weather in parts of China, Europe, and the United States.
Year-on-year, the drop is even more pronounced: maize is down 2 percent, wheat 20 percent, and rice 31 percent compared to May 2024.
Despite this easing on world markets, the benefits are not being felt in Nigeria.
The World Bank attributes this to what it calls “sticky” domestic food prices.
Even as global benchmarks fall, Nigerian consumers continue to battle one of the highest food inflation rates on the continent.
This disconnect is driven by deep-rooted structural problems. A major culprit is Nigeria’s weak currency.
As the naira continues to lose value, the cost of imports remains elevated. Importers have to pay more for dollars to bring in food products, wiping out any advantage from lower international prices.
Even locally grown food isn’t spared, since fertilizers, seeds, machinery, and transportation often rely on imported components priced in dollars.
High transport and trade costs further complicate matters. The World Bank estimates that in many African countries, including Nigeria, logistics costs account for as much as 30 percent of the final retail price of food.
Poor road networks, unsafe highways, dilapidated vehicles, and constant delays mean moving food from surplus-producing areas to deficit regions is slow, expensive, and risky.
This inefficiency means even when local farmers have good harvests, much of it spoils before reaching markets, or arrives late and at inflated prices. In Nigeria’s case, insecurity compounds the problem.
Truck drivers face armed robbery and extortion on highways, especially in the north and central belts, forcing them to raise prices to cover “security fees” and delays.
The human cost of these failures is immense. In recent months, food inflation in Nigeria has consistently outpaced overall inflation, hitting the poorest households hardest.
Families are forced to reduce the quality and quantity of meals, skip nutritious foods, or cut spending on health and education to afford basic staples.
Markets in Lagos, Kano, Port Harcourt, and Abuja show little evidence of the falling global prices, with traders citing high transport costs, expensive wholesale prices, and the cost of securing goods as reasons for steady or rising local prices.
The World Bank also points to broader structural challenges. Conflict and insecurity in farming regions remain major drivers of Nigeria’s food crisis.
Armed banditry in the northwest has displaced thousands of farmers from their land, slashing production.
In the northeast, Boko Haram and ISWAP insurgencies continue to prevent farming and market activity, while farmer-herder conflicts in the middle belt regions keep communities in fear. All of this reduces domestic supply and further drives up prices.
Climate change is another layer of risk. While the Bank’s report notes that global input and freight costs have stabilized, it warns of continued vulnerability to extreme weather.
Dry weather threatens winter wheat in China, Europe, and the US, while rising temperatures globally increase the chance of heat-related crop losses.
Nigeria is highly exposed to these risks.
Flooding in recent years has destroyed farmland in states like Jigawa, Kogi, and Anambra, while erratic rainfall and prolonged dry spells have reduced yields in the north.
Nigeria’s limited irrigation capacity, low use of resilient seed varieties, and poor farmer extension services mean it struggles to adapt.
The bank’s update also highlights positive examples from other regions that Nigeria could learn from.
In East Asia and the Pacific, agricultural output has increased significantly for both export and domestic consumption.
This success is credited to investments in infrastructure, adoption of improved farming practices, better logistics, and government policies supporting market access and farmer resilience.
In these regions, even amid climate challenges, improved roads and storage facilities help reduce waste and keep food prices more stable.
By contrast, Nigeria’s food system remains hampered by underinvestment and policy inconsistency.
The bank recommends urgent action to upgrade transport infrastructure, noting that better roads would reduce travel times, spoilage, and costs.
It also calls for greater efforts to boost intra-African trade. Despite the promise of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), Nigeria continues to trade food more easily with Europe or Asia than with many of its neighbors.
High tariffs, cumbersome border procedures, and poor cross-border infrastructure limit the flow of food from surplus to deficit regions within Africa.
The report makes clear that these problems are not cyclical but structural. Nigeria’s food insecurity is not the result of temporary supply shocks or global shortages, but of a chronic failure to address the underlying systems that make food so expensive and inaccessible to so many.
Fixing these problems, according to Agripreneur, Sesan Oluseyi, will not be easy or quick.
“It will require massive investments in roads, storage, irrigation, and market systems.
“It will also require serious efforts to improve security in farming areas so farmers can return to their land and traders can move goods safely and affordably,” he said.
He added: “Macroeconomic stability is another essential piece. As long as the naira remains volatile and weak, import costs will stay high, even if international food prices continue to drop.
“Efforts to boost local production will also falter if farmers can’t afford imported inputs or access credit at manageable rates.”
Ultimately, the World Bank’s June 2025 Food Security Update offers both a warning and a roadmap. It shows that Nigeria cannot count on global market trends alone to solve its food crisis.
Even in a world of abundant harvests and lower benchmark prices, local failures in infrastructure, security, and policy can keep food out of reach for millions.
Simon Madaki, an agriculture enthusiast, said: “For Nigerian policymakers, the report is a call to action.
“Without structural reforms and serious investments in transport, markets, and production, food prices will remain high and hunger will deepen.
“But with the right choices, Nigeria can build a more resilient food system, capable of feeding its growing population affordably even as global markets rise and fall.
“Until then, for too many Nigerians, news of falling world prices will remain a cruel irony rather than a source of hope.”
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