Fundstrat expects Ether to fall toward $1,800 in the first quarter of 2026.
As 2026 approaches, Ether is becoming a clear dividing line for large crypto focused firms.
Some companies are increasing exposure aggressively, while others are preparing for a potential downturn in the months ahead.
Recent on chain data and market positioning show that corporate strategies around Ether are no longer aligned, reflecting different expectations around price behaviour, liquidity conditions, and the pace of crypto adoption within the financial system.
At current prices, the position is valued at roughly $1.83 billion.
The same data indicates that Trend Research has borrowed around $958 million in stablecoins from the decentralised lending protocol Aave.
Its average purchase price stands near $3,265 per ETH. Lookonchain published these details in a Monday post on X.
According to a post by founder Jack Yi, Trend Research plans to keep buying Ether regardless of short term price moves of a few hundred dollars.
Alongside ETH, the firm also maintains a heavy position in the Trump family linked World Liberty Financial token, underlining a broader high conviction crypto stance going into next year.
With more than 601,000 ETH, Trend Research now ranks as the third largest corporate Ether holder.
It sits behind BitMine Immersion Technologies and SharpLink Gaming.
However, because Trend Research is not publicly listed, it does not appear on several widely followed tracking platforms, including the StrategicEthReserve.
BitMine, the largest corporate Ether holder, has historically relied on a dollar cost averaging strategy rather than large single phase accumulation.
The contrast highlights how firms with significant balance sheets are adopting different approaches as uncertainty builds around the next market cycle.
While some firms continue to accumulate, others are bracing for a possible drawdown.
Fundstrat Global Advisors recently circulated an internal research note projecting that Ether could fall to a local bottom around $1,800 in the first quarter of 2026.
Screenshots of the note emerged on Dec. 21 and were attributed to Fundstrat co-founder and managing partner Tom Lee.
The analysis pointed to a meaningful pullback across major crypto assets in the first half of 2026, followed by the formation of a durable low either in the first or third quarter before a recovery into year-end.
The forecast drew attention because Lee is also chairman of BitMine, which holds roughly $12.3 billion worth of Ether, making it the largest known corporate ETH holder.
Positioning data suggests that professional traders are also leaning defensive.
According to blockchain intelligence platform Nansen, traders labelled as smart money remain net short on Ether by about $117 million.
At the same time, Nansen data shows these traders added around $15 million in long positions over the past 24 hours.
The move points to a modest pickup in risk appetite, even as overall positioning continues to reflect caution around near term price direction.
