John Glover, Chief Investment Officer of Ledn, commented that the price action over the past week called into question the validity of his wave count.
He says that Elliott Wave Theory has a rule per which the bottom of wave iv (yellow line on the chart below) cannot be below the top of wave i. “As can be seen in the chart below, wave iv has clearly penetrated wave i,” he notes.
Source: Ledn
If this is the case, Glover continues, “it means that we have seen the top in BTC prices for now,” and that a deeper correction, down as low as $97,000 or even $75,000, is in the cards.
“However, an alternative count is that instead of the 5 wave blue line being the completion of wave iii, it may only be wave 1 of wave iii.” If this is the case, we may still see a correction to $97,000, but then the ultimate Wave 5 (orange line) target is far higher than $144,000.
He concludes that: “I’m not ready to categorically state which count is correct, and will monitor the price action for a couple of weeks before I’m willing to commit. Until then, I will hold my long position.”
Moreover, Bitunix analysts noted that, over the past week, BTC saw heavy liquidations clustered around $109,500 over the past week. The $107,400 level remains a major long position concentration zone, they added.
“For crypto assets, geopolitical risks may briefly amplify volatility and trading volumes, but liquidity and capital dynamics remain the medium-to-long-term drivers,” the analysts said. “Key signals to watch are diplomatic actions, sanctions, and oil supply developments, rather than reacting emotionally to single news events.”
At the time of writing on Wednesday morning, BTC trades at $108,290. There was a clear, sharp drop today from $109,195 to the intraday low of $107,295. This is also the intraweek low.
The highest point today was $109,198, while the highest price over the past week was $113,220.
BTC is now down 2.8% in a week, 4.5% in a month, and 12.5% from its all-time high.
Investors are now looking to see if the coin will fall below $107,000, which would lead to the $105,000 and, subsequently, $100,000. Conversely, in the case of a rally, it could climb above $111,000 and towards $115,000.
More precisely, the first resistance is at $111,350, followed by $113,500 and $115,700. On the other hand, $105,150 could lead to $103,350.
Bitcoin Price Chart. Source: TradingView
Ethereum is currently trading at $4,402. It too plunged from $4,472 to the low of $4,367. Its intraday high was $4,491, and the intraweek high was $4,653.
While the coin is down 4.3% in a week, it’s still up 26.1% in a month. It’s also down 10.7% since its ATH.
Should the coin continue dropping, it may reach $4,300 and then $4,250. ETH is still performing green overall, and the price may continue rising over the $4,600 level.
More precisely, resistance stands at $4,665, followed by $4,865. However, pullbacks could see $4,265 and then $4,070.
Notably, the crypto market sentiment plummeted and finally exited the neutral zone, moving into the fear zone. The crypto fear and greed index dropped from 47 on Friday to 40 over the weekend and 39 today.
The caution turned into fear, which may now be pushing the prices down. That said, this could form buying opportunities for investors.
Source: CoinMarketCap
Meanwhile, the US BTC spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) broke the short positive flow streak, letting go of $126.64 million on 29 August.
Moreover, the US ETH ETFs also saw outflows, breaking their streak as well, with $164.64 million on Friday.
Four of the nine funds saw negative flows, and there were no inflows. The highest among these is Grayscale’s $61.3 million.
The company made multiple acquisitions in July and August, funding its purchases through capital market activities and operating income.
The crypto market dropped over the past day, as did the stock market on Friday, which was its previous day of trading. By the closing time on Friday, the S&P 500 was down by 0.64%, the Nasdaq-100 decreased by 1.22%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.2%. The stock market took a rest, following August highs and last week’s Nvidia quarterly earnings results and other US economic data.
The dip is still sustainable, at least in the near-term. Many analysts predict another rally, but for now, we’re in a phase of corrections.
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