Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen says 2025 reinforced a hard truth for the market: macroeconomic forces, not hype-driven cycle narratives, continue to dominate crypto price action.
What Happened: In his 2025 “Reflections” video, Cowen argued that while the traditional four-year Bitcoin cycle still technically held, with a post-halving peak forming in Q4, the drawdown that followed looked far more like 2019 than the sharp crashes seen in prior cycles.
Instead of a blow-off top, the market experienced a slow, grinding decline driven by tightening liquidity and macro headwinds.
The Altseason That Never Arrived
Cowen addressed one of 2025’s biggest disappointments: the absence of a broad altcoin rally.
The cause: Retail investors never meaningfully returned. Social interest made lower highs, while institutional capital stayed almost entirely focused on Bitcoin. The reality: Altcoins continued bleeding against BTC. Solana’s (CRYPTO: SOL) valuation versus Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) reverted to October 2022 levels, while XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) gave back most of its early-2025 gains. The takeaway: “There is never a guarantee of an altseason,” Cowen said. Without retail-driven mania, diversification into altcoins tends to underperform simply holding Bitcoin.
A 2019-Style “Apathy” Top
Cowen expects a potential countertrend rally in 2026, possibly back testing the 50-week moving average near the $100,000 area, followed by a final bottom later in the year if liquidity conditions remain restrictive.
The pattern: A gradual bleed lower rather than a violent capitulation. The implication: Bitcoin may continue to grind or consolidate until the Federal Reserve pivots back toward genuine quantitative easing in response to economic stress.
The 2026 Outlook: Expect a potential counter-trend rally to backtest the 50-week moving average (likely around $100k), followed by a final bottom later in the year.
Diversification Worked — Just Not In Alts
While crypto struggled, Cowen noted that precious metals quietly delivered strong performance in 2025.
Gold and silver helped offset crypto volatility, and Cowen acknowledged he underestimated their role. In a stark comparison, he pointed out that altcoins priced in silver are now trading at lower lows than in 2022, meaning metals preserved purchasing power better than most “tech” tokens.
Also Read: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, Dogecoin Edge Up But Set To End 2025 In The Red
What’s Next: Cowen urged caution heading into 2026, noting that the “easy money” phase of 2023-2024 is over.
A sustained bullish shift would require Bitcoin to reclaim key technical levels, such as consistent weekly closes above the 20-week moving average.
For now, the takeaway is clear: the super cycle narrative failed, the altseason narrative failed, and Bitcoin remains the market’s anchor.
Until liquidity meaningfully improves, Cowen argues that defensive positioning and humility remain the smartest strategy.
Read Next:
Crypto Momentum Stalled In Q4, But The Next Quarter Will Be Better: Grayscale
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$XRPRipple$1.84-1.94%Overview$BTCBitcoin$87621.14-0.87%$SOLSolana$124.74-0.10%Market News and Data brought to you by Benzinga APIs
