Report suggests that Bitcoin may retest the $100,000 level before establishing the next major leg higher.
Bitcoin (BTC) remains pressured as it hovers near $110,600 on Thursday, testing a key ascending trendline support. The rising geopolitical tensions and renewed US-China trade frictions are weighing on investor sentiment, keeping risk appetite subdued. A Copper Research report suggests that BTC could retest the $100,000 level before regaining upward momentum.
Bitcoin price recovery has slowed down so far this week, as escalating geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine, along with renewed US-China trade frictions, weigh on investor sentiment, leaving BTC to trade around $110,600 on Thursday.
On Wednesday, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth warned Russia of potential consequences for continued aggression if the war in Ukraine persists. Earlier in the week, US President Donald Trump had said that he is considering providing Ukraine with longer-range Tomahawk cruise missiles.
Meanwhile, the US-China trade tensions escalated further after both sides imposed tit-for-tat port fees this week. Adding to this, President Trump said that he was considering terminating the cooking Oil trade with China in retaliation for the latter’s refusal to purchase American soybeans.
Trump stated that he viewed the US as locked in an all-out trade war with China. However, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent proposed pausing import duties on Chinese goods for longer than three months if China halts its plan for strict export controls on rare-earth elements.
These ongoing geopolitical conflicts and trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies have triggered uncertainty and a risk-off sentiment in the market, which doesn’t bode well for riskier asset prices such as BTC.
A Copper Research report on Tuesday highlighted that historical patterns suggest further downside is still possible.
The report explained that Bitcoin might revisit the $100,000 level this month, potentially touching its long-term supportive zone — the 52-week average — as it has done several times in recent years, as shown in the chart below.
“Any decisive break away from this line would represent a genuine regime shift, comparable to those seen in 2014, 2018, and 2022. If historical sequencing holds, such a shift would not likely occur until 2026,” says the analyst.
Fadi Aboualfa, Head of Research at Copper, told FXStreet that, “Despite last week’s market turbulence, Bitcoin’s movement remains consistent, approaching long-term trend patterns that have compressed with the 52-week average. With strong ETF influence and supportive technical signals, a brief move towards $100k would be viewed as a healthy retest rather than a cause for concern.”
Some signs of optimism emerge despite recent turbulence. The historic leverage flush pushed futures market stress to extremes, with funding rates plunging to levels not seen since the FTX collapse in late 2022, as shown in the graph below.
Across perpetual futures, annualized funding briefly turned sharply negative, indicating that traders were paying a premium to stay short after bullish leverage was wiped out. This marks a complete sentiment reversal, with participants rapidly de-risking amid forced liquidations.
Historically, such extreme funding resets have coincided with peak fear and the final stages of deleveraging, often cleansing excess leverage and restoring balance for a healthier recovery phase in the mid-term.
Bitcoin price faced rejection from the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $115,154 on Tuesday and declined by nearly 4% the next day. At the time of writing on Thursday, BTC hovers at $110,600, nearing an ascending trendline.
If BTC breaks and closes below the ascending trendline, it could extend the decline toward the daily support level at $107,245, which roughly coincides with the 200-day EMA at $108,084.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator at 40 on the daily chart suggests that bearish momentum is gaining traction. Additionally, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) showed a bearish crossover last week, which remains in effect, further supporting the bearish view.
On the other side, if BTC recovers, it could extend the recovery toward the 50-day EMA at $115,154.
