Skeptics warn the math doesn’t add up, with $80,000 gains in 90 days requiring unsustainable inflows and nonstop momentum.
Bitcoin (BTC) climbed past $120,000 for the first time in over six weeks, lifted by weak US jobs figures, the US government shutdown, and growing bets on rate cuts.
With October kicking off strongly, some analysts are calling for a year-end rally to $200,000. Yet one expert cautioned that such a surge is unlikely, citing mathematical improbabilities, time constraints, historical precedents, and market dynamics.
BeInCrypto Markets data showed that BTC has gained 5.5% so far this month, living up to its ‘Uptober’ reputation. At press time, it was trading at $120,254, up 1.02% in the past 24 hours.
Now, several signals are aligning to suggest the rally could extend much further. One key signal is the Pi Cycle Top Indicator, which uses 111-day and 350-day simple moving averages to predict cycle peaks. The indicator remains far from signaling a top, suggesting that BTC has more room to grow.
“Pi Cycle Top is 65% away from the danger zone. Historically predicted tops almost to the day,” an analyst posted.
But, how far can BTC go this year? Well, many analysts believe that $200,000 is an achievable target. For instance, in late August, asset manager Bitwise predicted that BTC would reach this price level by year’s end.
Now, other analysts are pointing to chart patterns and historical analogies to validate this target. Analyst Tech Lead noted that BTC’s long-term trend remains intact within its logarithmic growth channel, with technical signals suggesting further upside potential.
“Bitcoin still on-trend for $200,000 by year-end. The mistake is not understanding BTC moves exponentially – the higher the price, the faster the movement. Log-chart is the only way to track this channel. Triple-top, ascending triangle – TA says this blows through higher,” he said.
Another market watcher compared Bitcoin’s current trajectory to gold’s explosive run in the 1970s.
They suggested that Bitcoin, often seen as digital gold, is showing similar structural patterns on the chart. If the parallel holds, the analyst argued, a $200,000 price target could be realistic within the current cycle.
Furthermore, seasonality adds to the bullish outlook. According to Coinglass data, Bitcoin’s average Q4 return is 79.26%. At current levels around $120,000, even if BTC matched that average, the price would rise to over $215,000.
Despite these signals, attorney and Bitcoin proponent Joe Carlasare contends a $200,000 year-end price is ‘very unlikely.’ He outlined several factors to support his argument.
Carlasare highlighted that BTC remains $80,000 short of the target, with only 90 days left (about 60 trading days on CME). He highlighted that achieving this requires an average daily gain of $850 without significant pullbacks or consolidations.
“Bitcoin rarely sustained that pace of appreciation over a 3-month period, even in its strongest bull runs. Only a couple examples pre-2018,” he remarked.
Carlasare added that as prices climb, market capitalization growth demands exponentially more capital. Thus, reaching $200,000 would necessitate billions in inflows amid unlocked sellers between $150,000 and $190,000.
