RBA minutes: Why interest-rate cuts are not coming soonCameron MicallefNewsWireTue, 14 October 2025 10:02AM
Australians are spending faster than anticipated and keeping their jobs, which reduces the need for “immediate interest-rate relief”, the Reserve Bank of Australia says.
In its latest minutes of monetary policy, the RBA said the board was in no rush to move on interest rates.
The RBA said a combination of rate cuts, tax relief and rising wages meant households and businesses were holding up.
“In considering the financial position of Australian households and businesses, members noted that most were in a relatively strong financial position,” the board said.
“Most households with mortgages had maintained their repayments and large savings buffers. Most businesses also had solid financial buffers.”
The RBA held the official cash rate at 3.60 per cent in September after a 25 basis point cut in August – the third such cut this year.
The cash rate is the lowest rate it has been since April 2023.
Weighing on further interest-rate relief, the board said, was a pick up in household spending in August as well as June economic data coming in stronger than expected.
The board did caveat that consumer-facing businesses, including those in retail, hospitality and construction, were entering insolvency at a faster rate than the “long-term average”.
But it said the full impact of previous rate cuts were still flowing through the economy.
Australia’s Cash Rate 2022
International risks
The RBA also points to the international risks US President Donald Trump’s tariff policies could have on global growth.
While the board did not directly name Mr Trump, it said the US tariffs were now “in effect for many economies, but there is still considerable uncertainty about their macroeconomic impacts”.
Of most note was Australia’s largest trading partner China, whose economy could be slowing down under these policies.
“Recent information suggested that momentum in the Chinese economy had been weak, although the staff’s judgment was that Chinese authorities would be likely to respond to any persistent weakness with additional fiscal stimulus,” the board said.
The RBA also said economic activity in the US appeared to be growing at a steady rate despite the softening labour market.
It said higher tariffs could also impact US inflation.
Originally published as RBA minutes: Why interest-rate cuts are not coming soon
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