When Reform UK announced earlier this month they would scrap Labour’s plans for rail investment in the North, it prompted a trademark Andy Burnham rant on ITV News.
“Who do they think they are?” spouted Burnham, standing outside Westminster, hands on hips and looking every inch the Centrist Dad in his sensible navy jumper and thick-framed glasses.
Nigel Farage’s party, like Boris Johnson’s before, then found themselves on the end of a classic telling off from the man supporters hail as the King of the North.
This is Burnham’s comfort zone – putting southern, Westminster types back in their box and demanding they accede to the wisdom of Labour’s most high-profile mayor instead.
In the North of England it works.
Brand Burnham remains immensely popular, and such TV interventions often prompt floods of messages on social media calling for him to be Labour’s next leader and prime minister.
Those suggestions are being given more credence than ever as Labour sinks to just 20 per cent in the polls and Sir Keir Starmer finds himself engulfed in criticism over the resignations of Angela Rayner and Peter Mandelson.
But is a tilt at the top job realistic for Burnham, 10 years after he twice failed to secure the party’s leadership?
Would Burnham’s appeal translate beyond Birmingham? And perhaps most crucially, does he even want to be prime minister?
When Burnham lost the 2015 leadership race to Jeremy Corbyn, he was not a household name to those outside of politics.
Then in 2017, the job to become Greater Manchester’s first mayor came along and he sensed the opportunity for an alternative political career path.
Not everyone was convinced by devolution at the time, with then-Tory MPs such as David Nuttall questioning whether the region really needed another elected politician.
Turnout for mayoral elections that barely reach 30 per cent suggests voters aren’t especially engaged either – but Burnham has elevated the position to another level.
Just weeks after being elected, Burnham faced one of his most difficult tests when Salman Abedi carried out the bombing of Manchester Arena.
His emotional but measured response connected with people and helped calm what could otherwise have become an inflamed atmosphere.
Burnham has since helped convince successive Tory governments to give Greater Manchester more funding and powers over areas such as transport, health, welfare and policing that have started to translate into tangible differences voters can see.
The Bee Network, Burnham’s rebranding of Greater Manchester’s public transport, has taken control of bus services, keeping the £2 bus fare cap and the first regional train services are set to join next year.
In April, a new deal came into effect which will see Burnham’s authority receive a single funding pot of around £650m with more freedom than ever to spend it how they see fit.
“Andy Burnham has created the job of being mayor from what was a political construct into a invaluable part of the political system almost single-handedly,” said Henri Murison, chief executive of lobby group Northern Powerhouse Partnership (NPP).
“When he first started, he had been a government minister, but the difference is that when you make decisions in a combined authority it actually happens.
“Andy has clearly gained a level of administrative experience that he didn’t have before. He’s a different politician than he was.”
Murison, who has worked with Burnham for several years, believes he is an asset the North cannot, and should not, have to lose.
“I don’t think the North of England should have to give up our king to make Labour MPs feel better about themselves,” he added.
“Many of us would be very sad to lose him, especially for a vacancy that may never emerge, when he has one of the best jobs in politics.
“It would feel like a big loss.”
The theory swirling around Westminster is that if Starmer were to be forced out, Burnham is comfortably the most popular Labour figure among party members and the leading soft-left contender now that Rayner has resigned from Government.
However, only MPs can stand for the position – Burnham would need to quit his job as mayor and find a seat.
There has been speculation that Andrew Gwynne, the former-Labour-now-independent MP for Gorton and Denton, has asked to retire on medical grounds, offering a potential opening.
Or Graham Stringer, the 75-year-old Labour MP for Blackley and Middleton South, could be prepared to stand down.
Polling suggests neither could be considered safe Labour seats and the party would face a strong threat from Reform, but Jon Tonge, professor of politics at the University of Liverpool, believes Burnham would likely win them if he was inclined to run.
“I think he would win either Gwynne’s seat or Stringer’s, which is quite something in itself, I don’t think there’s any other Labour candidate who would hold on those seats at the moment,” Tonge told The i Paper.
“That is testament to his popularity.
“There’s no doubt he’s been a good and popular mayor of Greater Manchester.
“When there’s an election for the mayoralty he even comes top in traditionally Conservative places like Hale, he reaches parts of the country Labour can’t normally reach.
“He’s more popular than his party in that sense.”
Burnham often says that he is glad to have left Westminster politics behind and that he feels it is possible to achieve far more as a mayor.
But at 55, he still has plenty of time for a go at the most powerful job in the country.
“It would be a huge gamble for Burnham, but I do think there’s a point you become bored of being Greater Manchester mayor, he’s already achieved a lot of what he wanted to achieve,” said Tonge.
“I think it [Burnham’s popularity] would transfer very well in terms of Labour trying to defend the Red Wall seats they lost to Boris Johnson in 2019 and then won back.
“Labour would definitely benefit from Burnham in the North, I think people would prefer to vote for him than Nigel Farage’s Reform party.
“But I’m not sure his popularity would be so great in the South, and of course it’s not just a case of taking on Reform, it’s also the Lib Dems.
“I’m not saying his popularity ends at Birmingham, but he’s got less of a profile down there, people aren’t as interested, some would even find him irritating the way he is constantly articulating stuff for Greater Manchester and the North West.
“He would have to reinvent himself again.”
There is no guarantee that the political horse trading required for Burnham to find a seat and win it will take place.
It also remains entirely possible that Starmer weathers the current crisis, reenergises Labour at the party’s conference in Liverpool and talk of Burnham becoming leader looks fanciful once again.
Labour insiders told The i Paper they expect Burnham to be “on manoeuvres” again in Liverpool and launching thinly-veiled attacks on government policies, especially if the North West does not get the rail investment it is expecting.
But Tonge is among the commentators who remain unconvinced that Burnham is engaged in a serious, behind-the-scenes plot to become prime minister.
“Burnham has been used to just batting for his patch – bring prime minister requires a different set of skills,” he said.
“The other weakness – is he ruthless enough?
“He likes to face both ways, that’s not a snide comment it’s just that he likes to be liked.
“Being prime minister you’ve got to be really tough and dispense with people, look at what Starmer did to Sue Gray and to Mandelson eventually.
“Burnham likes to take people with him rather than ditch them, that’s admirable as a person, I think he’s a good person to work for.
“But you’ve got to be brutal to be a leader.”
Tonge also argued that Burnham’s success in Greater Manchester has been built on offering things the public can get behind – whether it be improved public transport or attracting investment to the city.
In Britain’s current financial position, any future government is facing difficult choices that are likely to be far more unpopular with voters.
“Labour can change leader every week, the real issue is there’s no money,” said Tonge.
“This is so different to the Blair years when there were wealth taxes and lots of money to spend on public services.
“Where’s the money coming from? Andy Burnham can’t change that, it doesn’t matter who’s in charge.
“I still think the next election will be decided on the economy, not immigration.
“With the amount of debt we’re in Labour can’t afford goodies to offer voters, so how do you win?
“Burnham is a splurger, he’s great with other people’s money.
“But imagine the hard decisions that are going to have be made – that’s not Burnham, he likes to be be liked.”
