Except for a state representative race in my very early days as a consultant, I’ve never lost an incumbent race — that is, when I had an ongoing collaboration with an incumbent seeking reelection. And there’s a reason for that: incumbents usually have major advantages.
While I wrote a book on how to beat an incumbent, it’s worthwhile to flip the perspective. Let’s examine the advantages of an incumbent and how they can further maximize their edge.
Three Core Advantages of Incumbency
1. Name Recognition and Recall
Most challengers spend months or even years trying to introduce themselves to voters. As an incumbent, you normally start with built-in name recognition. People already know who you are and that’s half the battle in politics.
2. Media Access and Influence
Incumbents have a unique ability to shape the narrative. From official press releases to earned media opportunities, you’re far more likely to get coverage than a challenger. That’s not just visibility, it’s agenda-setting power.
3. Fundraising Power
There is of course an exception to every rule. In the UK, for example, the Labour Party in 2010 managed to be outspent after a decade in power, but that’s rather rare. I have rarely seen an incumbent that is not at least at eye level with the challenger compared to fundraising. And tactically, you can often maximize that advantage.
It’s a Referendum on You
Here’s my strategic premise: if you’re the incumbent, the election is essentially a referendum on you.
If people are satisfied with how things are going and if they think that you’re at least trying to deliver on your campaign promises, incumbents are usually in good shape.
In addition to delivering, it is equally important to make sure voters know you’re listening to them. An incumbent must be open to new demands and show that they at least understand what voters are saying.
Sometimes, a leader has to reach a decision that he thinks is right but might be deeply unpopular at the time. In such a situation, it’s important to at least make a genuine effort to explain the policy well.
With respect to surveys, this approach means that, especially two or three years before the election, the most important number to look at is not the match-up question (“Who would you vote for if the election were held today?”). The key figure to track over time is the incumbent’s job approval.
The Real Campaign Happens in Office
My working hypothesis is that an incumbent running for reelection should not have a close race. If he has a close race, or is even losing, that often means that something went wrong during the time in office. Because the real campaign for an incumbent is not the few months before the election, it’s the communication, the responsiveness, and the leadership he demonstrates while in office.
PS: to get more information on this topic, you can also watch my latest video on YouTube.
