River says the distribution is inferred from filings, address tagging and prior research. In other words, it is an estimate, not an on-chain census.
The U.S.-based bitcoin financial services firm revealed ownership distribution research dated Aug. 25, 2025 in a recent post on X. The study groups supply into categories and shows the share River attributes to each, using public filings, custodial address tagging and earlier blockchain research.
River estimates individuals control about 65.9% of circulating BTC, or 13.83 million coins. This bucket includes self-custodied wallets and exchange accounts River classifies as individual.
On the institutional side, River divides holdings into businesses and ETFs and funds.
Governments are shown at about 1.5%, or 306,000 BTC, based on sovereign addresses River tracks from public sources.
Two special categories round out the distribution:
Finally, about 5.2% of the supply, or 1.09 million BTC, has yet to be mined before the hard cap of 21 million is reached.
In plain terms, River’s research is an attempt to map who holds bitcoin today, not to forecast future prices. The estimates are not definitive, since custodians aggregate many clients, some wallets are misclassified and ownership can be opaque.
River’s conclusion is that individuals still dominate holdings, but the institutional share is expanding, helped by the growth of ETFs and companies that now treat bitcoin as a balance-sheet asset.
