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Happy Saturday everyone, and welcome to The Edge with Harry Wilson.
Thanks go to betting editor Keith Melrose for sitting in the last couple of days, and didn’t it go well? Our going tool gave everyone the heads up that Taunton would be a good deal quicker than advertised on Thursday and then on Friday a good chunk of horses we focused on won – including the likes of eyecatcher Tormund Giantsbane, tracker horse Regal Ulixes and Fast Track Harry, who was the subject of our must-watch replay.
Our aim is to fast-track your form study every morning by providing you with the vital insight you need for each day’s racing, and that is no different today as we prepare for plenty of action with no less than ten races live on ITV from Kelso, Newbury and Doncaster.
There are also two all-weather meetings from Lingfield and Southwell in Britain, as well as jumping from Navan in Ireland.
Let’s dive in and see what we can uncover.
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Going assessment
Kelso
Official going description: Good to soft, soft in places
GoingStick reading: 5.7 this morning
Forecast: Overcast, with a chance of a shower in the late afternoon
Projected going description: Good to soft (7.1)
There are few tracks that can rival Kelso in terms of the correlation between its GoingStick readings and the description of the going. Our sample suggests the ground may ride slightly quicker than advertised, but only marginally.
Newbury
Official going description: Good to soft, soft in places
GoingStick reading: 3.9 this morning
Forecast: Showers passed by this morning, with a sunny afternoon
Projected going description: Soft, good to soft in places (4.9)
Newbury tends to use a narrow band of GoingStick readings for a wide range of going descriptions. Our projection suggests the ground could be slower than described. All split bends will be moved to fresher ground for today’s racing.
Doncaster
Official going description: Soft
GoingStick reading: 4.6 this morning
Forecast: Light rain clearing by around 11am, with a chance of a shower during racing
Projected going description: Soft (3.9)
There has been rain at Doncaster since yesterday’s meeting and the ground has softened, with the track’s reading of 4.6 consistent with soft ground according to our data.
There is the chance of more showers this morning and during racing, so just keep an eye out, as Doncaster cuts up as badly as anywhere if horses get into the rain-softened ground.
Navan
Official going description: Heavy
Forecast: Mainly dry
Given Navan had to pass an inspection on Friday morning, it is likely to be testing.
Lingfield
Official going description: Standard
Forecast: Showers clearing from 9am, sunshine in the afternoon
Lingfield hosted its All-Weather Championships Trials card yesterday, when times of some good races suggested the Polytrack was riding bang-on ‘standard’.
Southwell
Official going description: Standard
Forecast: Dry and overcast
Southwell last raced on Tuesday, when times gave no indication that the Tapeta was anything other than ‘standard’.
Trainer and jockey form
Hot trainers
Here are all the trainers with a runner today whose return over the last two weeks has produced a percentile score above 95. Per our companion piece that means that their recent form is statistically significant.
If we’re looking for a trainer in top form who has also had the winner of a big race on a recent Saturday, we should be looking no further than Neil King. He has won with his last three runners, including landing last week’s Ladbrokes Trophy with the well-supported Lookaway.
His sole runner today is Rubber Ball, who has been a shade disappointing over a variety of trips this season. However, the return to Newbury is an interesting one, given his sole visit resulted in a defeat of subsequent William Hill Hurdle winner Tutti Quanti off level weights in February last year.
Cold trainers
These are the trainers with runners today whose record in the last four weeks has been cold to a statistically significant extent.
We flagged on Wednesday that it looked like Chris Gordon was heading towards the cold list and the bad fortune has continued for the trainer, who also told us this week that his progressive chaser David’s Well is to miss Cheltenham after picking up an injury.
Hot jockeys
Here are all the jockeys with at least one ride today whose return over the last two weeks has produced a percentile score above 95.
We haven’t seen much of talented claimer Conner McCann this year. He has had just six rides since the turn of the year and only three in the last four weeks, but he has won his last two, both for the Lucinda Russell and Michael Scudamore yard. He has just one ride at Kelso on Hunters Spring for the same partnership in the 2m mares’ novice hurdle (4.35).
It also looks worth noting that five of Rob Hornby’s six wins in the past fortnight have come in the last seven days. He has four rides at Southwell, a track at which he is operating at a 28 per cent strike-rate (5-18) this season.
Cold jockeys
The newest addition to the cold list is Rex Dingle, although he won’t be here for long if Dartmoor Pirate, who he has steered to victory the last twice, completes the hat-trick in the 2.30 at Doncaster.
Market analysis
Here are today’s market movers, since 6pm last night. Note that all market movers allow for any rule 4 deductions.
The market had been a good guide to the chances of runners from the Oliver Greenall and Josh Guerriero yard when they were going through a quiet spell – they have now struck with three of their last five runners – and it’s interesting to see the money come for Melon, who looks set to go off the shortest price he’s started all season.
Today’s eyecatchers
Corniche Girl
1.30 Lingfield
Comment two runs ago (Wolverhampton, January 26): In rear, not clear run repeatedly when headway over 1f out, switched right inside final furlong, went second inside final 110yds, eyecatcher
Corniche Girl has actually been an eyecatcher on her last two starts, latterly over a mile at Lingfield two weeks ago, but it seems more valuable to highlight her run two starts ago given she’s reverting back to a sprint trip.
She only got clear daylight inside the final furlong when the winner had already gone in a 6f handicap at Wolverhampton that day, running on to take second late on. She’s just 1lb higher here.
Ivor Bear
4.50 Doncaster
Comment last time (Cheltenham, January 1): In rear, raced wide but good headway from 4f out, pressed leader 2f out, no extra when short of room final 110yds
Ivor Bear made good inroads from the rear but that effort looked to take its toll late on. He’s likely to benefit from that debut effort and tackles a less testing track this time.
Chicago Storm
8.00 Southwell
Comment last time (Wolverhampton, January 27): Towards rear, headway on outer over 2f out, bumped and carried right on turn over 1f out, ridden inside final furlong, kept on inside final 110yds, not reach leaders
Chicago Storm did well to finish as close as he did considering he had to make his ground on the outer and was then pushed even wider when bumped on the home turn. The drop back in trip could be a good move, given his best efforts on the Flat have come over this sort of distance.
Horses from our tracker
Smoke Trail
1.35 Newbury
A good winner of a point-to-point in April, the form of which is working out very well. Won well on his debut before two subsequent underwhelming efforts in stronger company. Improvement likely for first run in a handicap under a 10lb claimer.
Jonny Pearson
Rodney
2.40 Newbury
Presaged his yard’s recent return to form with an impressive hat-trick at lesser courses. He has more to come than a half-length win in a fast finish at Ludlow last time implies and has definitely earned a run at a big track.
Keith Melrose
Shafi
5.30 Southwell
Third behind two subsequent winners on his debut, then overcame a wide trip to comfortably beat a subsequent winner last time. Can defy a penalty.
Steffan Edwards
Today’s must-watch replay
ITV’s terrestrial coverage centres on a fantastic meeting at Kelso, where there is a total of £355,000 in prize-money on offer.
There is also a £100,000 bonus up for grabs if the Morebattle Hurdle (2.55) winner is able to follow up at the Cheltenham Festival, a double last achieved by Plate winner The Shunter in 2021.
The defending champion is Cracking Rhapsody. In fact, he’s won the last two runnings of this valuable 2m handicap hurdle, as well as landing the Scottish Champion Hurdle at Ayr in April.
Could he become just the second horse to win three Morebattles? Well, he’s won four of his five hurdle starts at Kelso (second on the other occasion) and is 1lb below his last winning mark. Though, this does look a tough race.
Get involved
As Keith mentioned yesterday, we’ve enjoyed reading your various ‘pet angles’ – his words, not mine – when it comes to finding horses to back on a daily basis and it’s got us thinking. How do you go about finding winners on a busy Saturday?
Will you be locked to ITV and just be playing in the ten races live on the terrestrial coverage, or are you keen to look elsewhere for a horse the bookies may have mispriced away from all the eyes? In any case, we want to know what angles you’re looking for and what horses you’ll be backing on a busy Saturday.
Please join the conversation of like-minded punters at [email protected] and we’ll run some of your correspondence in this section tomorrow.
