Cryptocurrency analyst Michaël van de Poppe warns that most altcoins may not survive 2026, citing structural underperformance, increasing competition, and flawed token economics.
His outlook comes amid growing uncertainty about the trajectory of the crypto market in 2026. While many analysts anticipate an extended downturn, others argue that conditions could align for a renewed bull market.
In a recent YouTube video, Van de Poppe stated that the assumption that “altcoins always come back” is a dangerous one. He argues that the past year has been a harsh awakening, with most altcoins performing even worse than in 2022.
“It’s been a rough bear market year as most of the altcoins have gone down by around 90%. And I think that most of them will never be coming back up again,” he said.
The analyst also outlined several reasons why many altcoins could face challenges next year. One of the primary reasons cited is poor tokenomics and financial mismanagement. According to Van de Poppe,
“The first reason why most of the altcoins will not survive is that founders have screwed up their financials, screwed up their tokenomics, or they have such a big downturn that they simply cannot come back from that.”
The prolonged market downturn itself is another critical factor. The analyst described it as the “longest bear market” in crypto’s history. Van de Poppe likened the current phase to the aftermath of the dot-com bubble burst.
“If we’re looking at the crash after the dotcom bubble, almost all of those projects or companies during that period that were building into internet were not coming back,” he stated.
Rapid technological progress is also reshaping the competitive space. Using earlier-generation projects as examples, the analyst explained that newer, more efficient solutions have overtaken many altcoins built during previous cycles.
In some cases, the original problems these projects aimed to solve no longer exist, reducing their relevance and long-term viability. Institutional adoption, while broadly positive for the crypto industry, may further disadvantage smaller projects.
“If we use the example of Neo in 2017, then right now there are way better solutions for the problem that they wanted to solve…. with the institutions coming in, the impact of that is going to be net positive for the entire industry, but net negative for smaller teams that cannot fight against it,” he added.
While warning that most altcoins will not do well by 2026, the analyst emphasized that some are positioned to survive. According to his framework, the altcoins most likely to endure are those showing a disconnect between price performance and underlying growth.
He argued that projects with rising on-chain activity, increasing total value locked (TVL), higher transaction volumes, and growing fee generation, despite weak or declining token prices, represent potential long-term survivors. He highlighted Arbitrum, Aave, and NEAR as examples.
“The current price of Arbitrum is hitting new lows compared to that period while the underlying growth of the ecosystem is going up by nearly 200% in the same period of time. That’s where you can find good altcoins,” Van de Poppe remarked.
This outlook aligns with broader industry views that a widespread altcoin season may not materialize, with only a select few assets positioned to benefit as the market matures.
Thus, the divide between surviving and failing altcoins is expected to widen in the next cycle. While this shakeout may lead to short-term losses, it could ultimately strengthen the broader crypto ecosystem by concentrating value in more resilient and fundamentally sound projects.
