Where a person went to school may be a deciding factor in how they vote at the next election, a new poll has revealed.
Reform UK is now the most popular party among former pupils of state schools, new findings from polling firm More in Common show.
Around a third (32 per cent) of this group would vote for the Nigel Farage-led party tomorrow if an election were called, reflecting its overall lead in nationwide polls.
Labour is only attracting 20 per cent of this group in comparison, while its popularity among the privately educated is much higher. In this group, which makes up a much smaller proportion of the population, the government’s popularity is at nearly 40 per cent.
The results mark More in Common’s first survey of voting intention, but the results are “consistent in other recent polls”, director Luke Tryl said.
Mr Tryl told The Telegraph: “One of the things we know is that Reform polls very well with people who are understandably very unhappy with the status quo.
“The truth is we have exceptionally volatile electorates, and I think the battle of the next few years is going to be which party can convince people it can bring about the change that they need.”
The challenge for leading parties is to prove they “authentically speak for the working class, the middle class [and] show they get their concerns,” he said, adding: “I think Farage, because he’s plain-speaking, because he connects, has clearly done a good job of doing that so far. If Labour are going to get back in again, they need to show that they get it.”
Labour’s success among former private school attendees may be surprising, considering its move to impose higher VAT on these types of schools shortly after coming into power last year.
The survey of 2,037 adults in September found 38 per cent of privately educated people would vote for Labour in any immediate election.
Reflecting on the results, top polling expert John Curtice told The Independent: “The folk who are voting for Reform are overwhelmingly people who voted for Brexit. Brexit was a division by age and by occupation.”
The political expert explained why Reform may appeal more to people who feel the system is not working for them: “If you are somebody with a degree, particularly if you are young, you have the labour market skills that are required to be part of the international market.
“If you are somebody who doesn’t have that experience, you might often be working in industries like hospitality, where there’s a very high take-up of jobs from the migrant population, so you might well feel under threat, and you don’t have the skills that are required to take advantage of freedom of movement.
“More broadly, Reform is a movement of social conservatives, while universities tend to be much more dominated by people who are social liberals.”
In recent months, senior Labour figures have acknowledged the growing threat of Reform, which, by polling performance, is arguably now its main opposition at both national and local elections.
Labour deputy leader candidate Bridget Phillipson pledged in her pitch to members that she would help “beat Reform”, in a sign of the shrinking relevance of the Conservative Party versus the rising right-wing populist group.
Many of the government’s policies have also been seen as an attempt to appease would-be Reform voters, especially concerning immigration, as ministers launch the ‘one-in-one-out deal’ with France.
Whether this political balancing act will lose them support on the other side of the spectrum will be a key question in the coming years, as the Green Party helmed by Zack Polanski – and possibly Jeremy Corbyn’s embattled Your Party – look poised to offer an alternative to disillusioned left-leaning voters, and further break apart the traditional two-party system.
