After Bitcoin (BTC 0.05%) hit a new all-time high of $124,457 during the summer, it was only natural that top analysts and industry insiders would start updating their long-term price predictions for the world’s most popular cryptocurrency.
The one price target that has captured the imagination of investors everywhere is $1 million. According to Coinbase Global Chief Executive Officer Brian Armstrong, Bitcoin could reach that price within the next five years. And he’s hardly alone. Other top investors also think Bitcoin could soon top $1 million.
So are they right?
For Bitcoin to hit a price of $1 million by the year 2030, it would need to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of about 50%. To state the obvious, there are relatively few assets in the world capable of achieving this spectacular rate of growth over long periods of time.
That’s what makes Bitcoin’s performance during the past decade so remarkable. Although Bitcoin has had two down years during that time period — 2018 and 2022 — it has also been the top-performing asset in the world during the other eight years. And it has done so in spectacular fashion. In 2024, for example, Bitcoin posted a return of 121%.
It’s getting to the point, quite frankly, where triple-digit percentage performances are the norm, rather than the exception. For example, Bitcoin posted triple-digit returns in 2020, 2023, and 2024. The standout year was 2020, when Bitcoin increased in value by a staggering 304%.
The big question, of course, is whether Bitcoin can keep up this head-spinning rate of performance during the next decade, or perhaps even longer. Although it might seem improbable, there are plenty of Bitcoin evangelists who think it’s a lot more likely than many might think. According to Michael Saylor, founder and executive chairman of Bitcoin treasury company Strategy (formerly known as MicroStrategy), Bitcoin could hit a price of $21 million within the next 21 years. That implies a CAGR of nearly 30%.
According to Coinbase’s Armstrong, institutional adoption is set to grow by leaps and bounds during the next five years. In short, institutional investors will continue to make Bitcoin an increasing part of their portfolios.
Right now, the suggested portfolio allocation to Bitcoin is just 1%. But within five years, that figure could inch up to 5%.
At the same time, there is likely to be an uptick in the number of use cases for Bitcoin. Right now, the primary use case is acting as a store of value and hedge against inflation. For good reason, many investors view Bitcoin as digital gold. Although Bitcoin is hardly a risk-free investment, it does seem particularly resilient to some macroeconomic shocks, just like gold.
But there are plenty of other potential use cases for Bitcoin. For example, Bitcoin is still significantly underutilized as a form of payment. When was the last time you paid for anything with Bitcoin?
But, as Bitcoin goes increasingly mainstream, it’s easy to see how it will become more and more popular as a form of payment, especially when paying online. It is a digital currency, after all.
During the next five years, if all goes according to plan, the U.S. government will fully embrace Bitcoin as a strategic asset. Earlier this year, the White House announced plans to create a U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, but did not commit to buying new Bitcoin. By 2030, though, the U.S. Treasury Department may be actively stockpiling Bitcoin.
Of course, past performance is no guarantee of future returns. And that means Bitcoin may have a tough time turning in an encore performance.
This year, for example, Bitcoin is up about 20%. That’s impressive for most assets, but not for Bitcoin. To make a realistic run at $1 million, Bitcoin needs to grow at a CAGR of 50%. So 20% just won’t cut it.
Yet, despite this, just about everyone seems to be convinced that Bitcoin is going to hit $1 million sooner or later. It’s no longer a question of if, but when. Bitcoin treasury companies are piling into Bitcoin, sovereign governments are buying it, and institutional investors are ramping up their exposure to the cryptocurrency. Most observers think the price of Bitcoin will only go up.
For the sake of Bitcoin investors everywhere, let’s hope they’re right.
