Cryptocurrency market maker Wintermute has given the expected date for the recovery of Bitcoin and altcoins.
The sharp sell-off in the cryptocurrency market intensified over the weekend, with Bitcoin falling below $80,000.
According to an assessment published by liquidity provider Wintermute, the decline triggered a total of $2.55 billion in liquidations, making it the 10th largest liquidation event in crypto history.
Bitcoin tested below $80,000 for the first time since the levels seen after the US tariffs in April 2025, and it was noted that the selling pressure in the market was not due to a single cause. According to Wintermute, the price movement resulted from a combination of factors: weak earnings reports from the “Magnificent 7” (Mag7) companies, Kevin Warsh’s nomination as FED chairman, and a sharp correction in precious metals.
Wintermute noted that last week’s busy macroeconomic calendar showed the market maintaining a relatively comfortable positioning despite rising risks, but that the headlines digested by midweek shifted to a “risk-off” rotation by Friday. The fact that selling typically spilled over into the weekend, when lower liquidity is common, coupled with high leverage positions, amplified the amount of liquidations.
Crypto assets continue to underperform traditional assets in both rising and falling markets. Wintermute pointed out that this is typical bear market behavior.
Kevin Warsh’s nomination to head the Fed was initially interpreted by the market as a “hawkish” signal. Warsh was known in the past for his cautious approach to quantitative easing (QE) and balance sheet expansion. However, it was also noted that recently he has viewed the US economy within a “high productivity, low inflation balance” and advocated for interest rate cuts.
According to strategists, markets have begun pricing in the possibility of interest rate cuts of up to 100 basis points by October. However, the main reason for Friday’s dollar strengthening was not policy expectations, but rather the Chicago PMI data exceeding expectations by 2.4 standard deviations.
Microsoft’s weaker-than-expected earnings report, in particular, raised questions about whether AI infrastructure investments could support current valuations. While the earnings report wasn’t a “catastrophe,” it eroded confidence in the AI narrative, which had fueled widespread risk appetite in equity markets.
The weakening of the artificial intelligence theme has also been reflected as selling pressure on cryptocurrencies, which are considered in the risky asset category.
Gold fell 9 percent, while silver recorded drops of up to 26 percent in intraday trading, triggering circuit breakers on the CME Comex. According to Wintermute, this move doesn’t mean the end of the “quantitative easing” narrative; rather, it points to a mechanical unraveling resulting from the liquidation of overly speculative positions through margin calls.
Wintermute’s assessment underlined that the current decline is not due to structural collapses like those in FTX, Luna, or 3AC. Instead, it stated that an organic but sharp unwinding of leverage is occurring as a result of macroeconomic uncertainties and fluctuations in risk appetite.
The company stated that the cryptocurrency market has been in a bear market for some time, with altcoin performance and investor sentiment confirming this. However, it was shared that this cycle could recover more quickly compared to previous bear markets due to the absence of forced bankruptcies or systemic contagion.
It was noted that with the strengthening of infrastructure, the continued increase in stablecoin usage, and the fact that institutional interest has not completely disappeared, a recovery is expected in the second half of 2026 with the reduction of macroeconomic uncertainty and the clarification of the Fed’s policy path.
