The Oilers have won just once in their last six games. Neville E. Guard / Imagn Images
The Edmonton Oilers were rolling near the end of January, with a record of 28-19-8 on Jan. 30 and a share of the top spot in the Pacific Division in standings points. The club was tied with the Vegas Golden Knights, who had played two fewer games, but the high ranking had fans talking of another division championship. Edmonton hasn’t won a division crown since 1987, 39 years ago.
Since then, the team is 1-5-0, and has fallen so far off the pace that missing the playoffs is possible, if extremely unlikely. No one can seriously argue this edition of the Oilers is on the same level as the last two seasons, but the fall from previous levels is startling.
The situation shouldn’t reach the point where missing the postseason is in the conversation. Yet we are here. It is interesting to contemplate what might happen if the Oilers finish on the outside of the playoffs at the end of the NHL schedule. Here’s a look.
It’s just the start of trade deadline week, but GM Stan Bowman is likely on no sleep already. He didn’t sign all of the no-movement and no-trade deals on the roster, but he signed some, and they are all his problem. Among the baker’s dozen contracts that include no-move or no-trade language, only two (Adam Henrique, Jack Roslovic) expire at the end of the season. Bowman waived Andrew Mangiapane on Sunday (along with defenceman Alec Regula), but moving additional contracts with no-movement language is a difficult process.
Many fans are upset with Darnell Nurse currently and want him traded. However, his no-movement deal is in place, easing only somewhat in the summer of 2027. It’s possible the organization approaches Nurse this summer to see if he’s willing to waive, but it’s far from certain. His cap hit ($9.25 million) is an overpay and limits the ability to make moves, but Nurse has averaged 18 minutes per game at five-on-five over the last three seasons with a 49 percent goal share (52 percent expected), and those minutes would have to land elsewhere on the roster. Sending away assets in addition to Nurse in order to move him to another team would be decidedly inefficient for a team with so few assets.
No matter what happens this spring, the Oilers are going to have a no-movement headache this summer.
Oilers fans are down on head coach Kris Knoblauch, although not at the rage level directed at Nurse. As is the case with Edmonton’s longest-serving defenceman, Knoblauch is unlikely to be going anywhere. The organization signed Knoblauch to a three-year extension last October, meaning he is under contract through the end of the 2028-29 season. Oilers owner Daryl Katz has cut a lot of checks to fired coaches over the last 10 years; it’s a good guess he has no appetite to fire Knoblauch before the extension kicks in.
What fans could see is an overhaul of Knoblauch’s staff. Paul Coffey has been re-hired to reprise his previous role, and management may want to tweak more after this chaotic season. There’s also a chance Coffey slides out of the coaching position currently occupied and returns to his adviser role with the team. A playoff miss might see Coffey filling a larger front office role and possibly emerging as the favourite for Edmonton’s next general manager. Traditionally, the Oilers don’t interview a wide swath of candidates, and history suggests hiring a former Oilers player for any role is often the path forward.
The Oilers had a successful run with Ken Holland, reaching the final in 2024 (his final season at the helm). The 2025 run to the Stanley Cup Final is generally regarded as Holland’s coda as opposed to Bowman working magic. Holland wasn’t renewed, and most believe leaving the Oilers vulnerable to losing Philip Broberg and Dylan Holloway to offer sheets contributed to it. Bowman has improved in several areas, notably replacing Holloway with a substantial option (Vasily Podkolzin) and improving the upper-end talent and overall quality of the AHL Bakersfield Condors.
He hasn’t put the team into a strong playoff position this season, but Bowman is highly unlikely to be replaced after this season. The nature of Coffey’s future with the team should be an interesting topic this summer. Based on all reporting, his current role isn’t a comfortable fit for Coffey, so a move into the front office and an increased say in the team’s direction may have appeal.
Should the Oilers miss the playoffs during the primes of Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and Evan Bouchard, there will be massive unrest from fans. As much as there will be a desire to make changes involving on-ice personnel, the contracts make it difficult.
McDavid and Draisaitl could request a trade, but that doesn’t seem likely based on commitments made by the players over the length of each career. Bouchard’s no-movement clause kicks in starting in the 2027-28 season, so there is a window of opportunity to trade the star defender.
That idea is noxious from a team-building point of view. Bouchard is the perfect fit for the high-skill that McDavid and Draisaitl deliver every game. Edmonton would be wise to acquire more elite puck movers, while keeping Bouchard through the end of the decade and beyond. That said, a disappointing season might mean a sea change for management. Bouchard would have incredible trade value.
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins has a chance to complete his fine career with Edmonton. He would be the first high-level player to do it with the Oilers, after the two previous ideal candidates (Kevin Lowe and Ryan Smyth) were eventually traded by the organization. It’s difficult to imagine Nugent-Hopkins playing for another team.
Names we could see exit after a non-playoff spring include Matt Savoie or Ike Howard. Both are young and skilled, but they are smaller, and Bowman may feel only one of them will receive a push from the coaching staff. Howard was acquired by current management, so bet on him staying. Ty Emberson is a young, effective defenceman with an attractive cap hit ($1.3 million), so he could be a useful trade piece if the team is looking to retool.
The Oilers have much of the roster under no-movement or no-trade deals, and several others who should be considered significant contributors. Some of the remaining veterans (like Mattias Janmark) may see reduced roles or look for a buyout.
Reinforcements will come from Bakersfield, where Bowman has added some interesting players. Josh Samanski might join Savoe, Howard or both, and Roby Jarventie, plus Quinn Hutson, might also be in the mix. Young defenders Beau Akey and Damien Carfagna might be NHL-ready sometime in 2026-27.
The heart of the order (McDavid, Draisaitl, Bouchard, Nugent-Hopkins, Nurse, Zach Hyman, Mattias Ekholm) will return, and names like Jake Walman, Trent Frederic and Tristan Jarry are automatic. It’s possible forwards Jack Roslovic and Kasperi Kapanen, plus defenceman Spencer Stastney and goalie Connor Ingram, are sent away, but there’s a good reason for all to return.
A non-playoff team in Edmonton would make for a miserable summer. The fan base would be looking for major changes. The no-movement contracts and a long-term commitment to Knoblauch suggest far less change than warranted.
One thing management could learn from a season out of the playoffs: other NHL teams (notably the Golden Knights) have moved players with restrictive contracts successfully. It isn’t the way the Oilers have done business in the past, but the absence of alternatives may dictate aggressive front office behaviour.
One thing ownership could learn from a season out of the playoffs: long-term deals with no-movement or no-trade clauses attached are anathema to roster building. Katz should insist that his managers work around the practice even if it means losing attractive free agents. There has to be a better way.
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