October has historically averaged -4.5% returns, but regulatory clarity and demand may break the pattern in 2025.
XRP is trading within a descending wedge pattern, often viewed as a bullish setup signaling a potential breakout.
Investors will be closely watching October, a month that historically hasn’t favored the token. Still, shifting market conditions and institutional activity could alter the expected trajectory this year.
September highlighted a strong presence of institutional investment in XRP, with inflows totaling $210 million despite market volatility. Even after the mid-month crash, large players continued accumulating positions. This shows confidence in XRP’s long-term utility in cross-border payments and its relevance in the broader digital asset ecosystem.
Ricardo Santos, CTO at Mansa, told BeInCrypto that the sell-off during September likely came from retail traders rather than institutions.
“Institutions went the other way entirely. We saw tokens move off exchanges into cold storage while whales continued to accumulate. Which is not surprising considering that we’re waiting on multiple XRP ETF decisions in Q4. You don’t move millions to cold storage if you’re planning a massive sell-off. September’s crash just gave institutions cheaper prices to build positions,” Richard stated.
Exchange net position data shows shifting investor behavior. For much of the month, sentiment leaned bearish as holders moved assets onto exchanges. As per Richard, this sale was the result of retail holders.
“Retail traders had leveraged up too much and got forced out when prices dropped. That’s where most of the selling came from,” Richard noted.
However, in the last week, more than 439 million XRP, worth over $1.2 billion, was withdrawn from trading platforms.
This trend signals growing confidence among both retail and institutional traders. By moving assets off exchanges, investors appear committed to holding XRP, reducing short-term selling pressure.
Historically, October has been challenging for XRP investors. Data from the past decade shows average returns of -4.5% in October, making it the second-worst month of the year for the token. This track record has often left traders wary of betting on rallies during this period.
However, Santos noted that 2025 could mark a deviation from the trend. Strong institutional inflows and shifting sentiment might counter historical weakness.
“Ripple’s legal battles with the SEC are essentially resolved. Tokenized assets are live on the XRP Ledger with real transaction volume. We have multiple ETF applications in the regulatory pipeline. Previous Octobers didn’t have these catalysts. That historical pattern happened during years of regulatory uncertainty and zero institutional infrastructure. The October pattern has held for years, but I believe that this might be the year it doesn’t.”
XRP is currently priced at $2.87 while trading inside the descending wedge. The technical setup points to a possible bullish breakout, though confirmation is needed. The next resistance level stands at $3.02, a threshold that could determine the token’s direction in October.
If XRP breaks above $3.02, the move could trigger a rally toward $3.61. Such a surge would bring XRP price close to its all-time high of $3.66 in October. Combined with institutional interest, this scenario highlights significant upside potential should momentum continue.
“Everything depends on XRP holding current support levels. If those hold and ETF approvals start coming through, we could see momentum build toward $3-5 in October… I’m seeing $5-10 targets from various analysts for year-end, and they’re not unreasonable if institutional money flows in as expected. The volatility will be brutal at times, but this is the strongest setup I’ve seen in years,” Richard told BeInCrypto.
However, the chances of XRP witnessing ETF approval may be this October. This is because the SEC’s recently introduced generic ETF listing rules have removed the need for a futures market to be in place before granting approval for spot ETFs tied to individual altcoins. Thus, the current applications for XRP and other tokens’ ETFs will likely be withdrawn.
Owing to this, if the bullish outlook fails, XRP may fall below $2.75 and slip toward $2.64. A breakdown of this magnitude would invalidate the bullish thesis and potentially repeat October’s historic pattern of weakness, keeping investor caution high in the near term.
