Bitcoin has slid back to the zone it traded in October 2024, the same area where large holders began their last accumulation campaign. Whales appear to be treating the retest as a re-entry window, not an exit signal. On-chain commentary says the biggest wallets are still adding exposure even as sentiment stays shaky. Market pricing echoed the tension: BTC hovered near $69,000 after ranging between $68,000 and $71,000 in the past day, down about 2% this week, 10% over two weeks, and nearly 28% in a month. ETH sat under $2,000, down 40% monthly too.
Pseudonymous market watcher CW8900 reported steady buying from large BTC and ETH holders, arguing Bitcoin’s current range mirrors the October 2024 “entry zone” where whales last began accumulating. Their central claim is that accumulation is accelerating even as retail anxiety rises. In their wording, buying has not slowed despite the pullback. In a separate note, the analyst said Ethereum whales are sitting on losses comparable to prior cycle lows, a pattern they associate with market bottoms, and suggested those wallets are building positions for an upcoming rally and a future bull market over coming months.
Other signals complicate the accumulation story, especially around Ethereum’s drawdown. Fundstrat’s Tom Lee said ETH can rebound fully, pointing to eight drawdowns above 50% since 2018, including a 64% drop earlier last year, where the asset formed a V-shaped bottom and recovered. The split is that long-term rebound narratives coexist with real position washouts. Trend Research, described as once Asia’s largest ETH long, closed its final position last week after building $2.1 billion in leveraged longs; Arkham said the exit locked in an $869 million realized loss, days after founder Jack Yi forecast $10,000 ETH.
Wise Crypto warned Bitcoin’s 9% rebound from Feb. 12 to Feb. 15 could be a trap, pointing to hidden bearish divergence on 12-hour charts and a 90% surge in NUPL that implies higher sell risk. The takeaway is that accumulation can look bullish while price structure still targets supports. They placed key support at $65,000 to $66,000, with $60,000 as the psychological floor. In an Ali Martinez poll, only 22.7% chose $60,000 as the cycle low; most expected $38,000. Santiment added that BTC often moves opposite crowd expectations, hinting at a rally if fear dominates.
