The news that surging costs are pushing the deficit comes a fortnight before councillors have to decide on a new set of cuts.
The council has to set its budget by the end of February. The first of a series of meetings to debate proposals began this week with the news that the expected gap has risen by almost £6m since last estimates were delivered in November.
Spiralling costs of adult home care and housing the homeless are emptying council coffers across the country as well as in West Lothian.
And while the Scottish Government’s revenue budget award to West Lothian, is a 2,5% cash increase of £12.188 million, but in real terms this represents only a 0.3% increase for revenue spending.
In his report to the Executive, Alasdair Black, Director of Finance said: “The updated estimated budget gap for 2026/27 and 2027/28 amounts to £15.4 million.
“This takes account of approved budget savings, updated planning assumptions, and accounts for the latest local government finance settlement.
“As reported to Council Executive on 11 November 2025, the council has a forecast net overspend position at month six of £2.588 million. Accounting for the IJB contribution towards its equal share of the residual year end overspend on delegated social care functions the projected overspend at month six is reduced to £2.160 million.”
Mr Black added: “The budget gap to 2027/28 will increase further based on the month six monitoring position if spending pressures are not significantly reduced.”
The increase in the Core Grant Funding be by 0.3% after taking account of inflation. It does not take into account the significant increase in demand for services (particularly older people services) and other increasing costs.
Lib Dem Councillor Sally Pattle questioned had officers could “have got its so wrong?” in terms of the jump from a gap of £9m to almost £6m more. Officers responded that this was the latest estimate of the gap given the information received from the Scottish Government.
The population of West Lothian has grown significantly over the last 10 years and this is forecast to continue. However, the largest areas of growth are within those aged over 65. Over the next 25 years, West Lothian is forecast to have the fastest growth in people of pensionable age in Scotland.
Audit Scotland recently said: “Councils face significant risks to their financial sustainability which can be influenced by external pressures. These include demographic changes and rising demand for services (particularly within social care).
Additionally, the implementation of new and existing Scottish Government policies without sufficient further funding can add to existing challenges.
Jo McPherson, Head of Social Policy, said: “The fact is that more people need care and support and an increasing number of people need more complex packages of care and for longer.
“Council delivers vital care and support to tens of thousands of people each and every day. It is the cornerstone of what our teams do and are proud to do.
“Having a growing number of people relying on our services means we need to invest more resources and spend more funding in these services.
“It is clear that West Lothian has significant budget pressures when it comes to demographic changes compared to the amount of funding we’re provided with.
“As Chief Social Work Officer it is incumbent on me to make it clear that we will always look to provide care to as many people as we can, but our funding will only go so far.
“Demand is increasing and we will do everything we can to manage demand but there’s no doubt the lack of adequate funding brings risks.
“We will do everything in our power to mitigate the risks that are caused by insufficient levels of funding and the inevitable challenges that we now face to help the growing number of people requiring care. We will always do our utmost to protect the most vulnerable people.”
Council leader Lawrence Fitzpatrick told the meeting: “I’m very gravely concerned about the potential adverse impact on the Integration Joint Board budget.
“Clearly there is a gap of £2.9m and I appreciate that the highly committed and professional social work team led by Jo McPherson do their absolute utmost to ensure people who are among the most vulnerable get the level of care which they so desperately need.”
“I have grave concerns about the ability, with the money available, to meet the very high levels of statutory requirements for people. It can be the case that we could lose people because of this.”
