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Welcome prediction on Aussie petrol prices

Last updated: October 19, 2025 6:30 am
Published: 6 months ago
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‘Welcome news’: Australian motorists set to benefit from oil price free fallCameron MicallefNewsWireSun, 19 October 2025 8:35AM

Aussie motorists could save at the petrol pump in the coming weeks as the price of oil plummets on trade tensions.

On Friday, Brent crude futures plummeted a further 85 cents to $US61.06 ($94.21) a barrel, while West Texas futures crashed to $US57.46 ($88).

Overall oil prices are down 19 per cent for the year and fell on Friday to near February 2021 lows, as a global economic slowdown could reduce the usage of oil.

While Australians get their oil from Tapis, with the market opening again on Monday, global oil prices usually move in lock-step.

Prior to Monday’s opening, Tapis — the crude oil used as the pricing benchmark in Australia — had already fallen 8 per cent over the last three weeks to $US72 ($111.20) a barrel.

The decline is likely to have a benefit for motorists the next time they fuel up.

NRMA spokesperson Peter Khoury said the falling price of international oil is welcome news for Australian motorists heading into the holiday season.

“It’s good news for motorists, usually when something happens overseas it takes seven to 10 days for it to impact prices in Australia,” he said.

But Mr Khoury warns Australian motorists have the additional complication of the domestic fuel cycle.

“Married on top of international factors, we have these price cycles in the big cities, so it’s also important motorists keep a keen eye on what’s happening in the price cycles they live in,” he told NewsWire.

“Yes, oil prices are falling but don’t wait exactly seven to 10 days as it might be the high of your city’s price cycle.”

While stopping short of a forecast, Mr Khoury said the overall trend is heading in the right direction for motorists.

“The oversupply of oil is expected to continue into 2026, which is good news but there’s a number of global factors which could have an immediate and significant impact on oil prices,” he said.

“There are so many global factors that could have an impact. We are very careful not to get carried away with our predictions.”

Why is the price of oil falling?

Oil prices have continued their downward spiral throughout the last week on a number of geopolitical factors and markets forecasting a glut of supply.

The price of Brent crude oil and West Texas oil fell sharply on Friday night, as traders fear the fallout from US President Donald Trump and China President Xi Jinping continuing their tit-for-tat tariffs.

The Chinese government issued a series of export restrictions on rare earth materials and threatened to disrupt a series of 90-day truces with America which will expire on 10 November.

In response, President Trump said he would slap a further 100 per cent tariff on Chinese goods by 1 November, although so far it is only a threat to do so.

Both sides have downplayed the recent flare-up in trade talks.

Also weighing on the price of fuel is news the US President and Russian President Vladimir Putin have agreed to meet again to discuss the conflict in Ukraine.

Global oil output is also surging, with the International Energy Agency forecasting around 1.4 million barrels of oil a day will be produced in 2025 and a further 1.2 million barrels in 2026.

Originally published as ‘Welcome news’: Australian motorists set to benefit from oil price free fall

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