Economics Associate Director, Operations – IMPG , S&P Global Market Intelligence
Flash PMI surveys take limelight amid scarcity of official data
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Flash PMI data for October will provide much needed insights into developing economic trends in the world’s major economies, alongside third quarter GDP for mainland China and inflation data for the UK and Japan. US inflation may also be updated but there remains uncertainty about what official US data will be released and when over the government shutdown period.
In the absence of official economic data releases, October’s flash PMI data will be eagerly assessed for indications of whether the US has sustained its lead among the major developed economies after growth slowed for a second month in September. We have raised concerns over the sustainability of the US upturn given signs of a fading boost from tariff front-running and a growth dependency on financial services and tech, but October’s data could be buoyed by the FOMC’s first cut to interest rates seen this year and widespread expectations of more rate cuts to come.
While it is likely that the delayed release of official US September CPI data on 24 October could show consumer inflation rising from 2.9% to 3.1%, we note that the recent US PMI had also shown an easing of tariff-related inflation pressures, which could feed through to lower inflation in coming months if sustained in the flash October survey.
In Europe, the eurozone PMI will be eyed for signs of further growth momentum after September saw business activity rise at the fastest rate for 16 months. However, the extent to which the political crisis in France has acted as a drag on growth will be important to monitor against any possible fiscal-driven domestic demand growth in Germany.
UK economic conditions will also be keenly awaited after the PMI showed a near-stalling of the economic upturn in September amid ongoing marked job losses. More encouraging has been the survey’s lower price growth compared to earlier in the year, which should feed to cooler consumer inflation in the coming months. However, the September official CPI print may still see some impact from the tax and pay increases which came into effect in April. CPI inflation was last seen running at 3.8% in August with core at 3.6%, so well above the Bank of England’s 2% target.
GDP growth in mainland China is meanwhile expected to have slowed from 5.2% in Q2 to 4.7% in Q3 according to Reuters’ consensus, with monthly data on industrial production, retail sales and investment also likewise signalling moderating growth.
With official US data releases continuing to be affected by the government shutdown, the focus for timely signals rests more than ever on the private data sources, elevating the PMI surveys in particular across the data watchers’ agenda. Flash PMI data for October are released during the week for all major developed economies.
Monday 20 Oct
Americas
Canada Market Holiday
– Canada BoC Business Outlook Survey
EMEA
– Germany PPI (Sep)
– Eurozone Current Account (Aug)
APAC
Singapore Market Holiday
– New Zealand Inflation (Q3)
– China Loan Prime Rate (Oct)
– China (Mainland) GDP (Q3)
– China (Mainland) Industrial Production, Retail Sales, Fixed Asset Investment (Sep)
– China (Mainland) Unemployment Rate (Sep)
Tuesday 21 Oct
Americas
– Canada Inflation (Sep)
EMEA
– Switzerland Trade (Sep)
APAC
India Market Holiday
– New Zealand Trade (Sep)
– Taiwan Export Orders (Sep)
Wednesday 22 Oct
Americas
– US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change
EMEA
– UK Inflation (Sep)
– South Africa Inflation (Sep)
APAC
India Market Holiday
– Japan Trade (Sep)
– Malaysia Inflation (Sep)
– Indonesia BI Interest Rate Decision
Thursday 23 Oct
Americas
– Canada Retail Sales (Sep, prelim)
– US Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Sep)
– US Existing Home Sales (Sep)
EMEA
– France Business Confidence (Oct)
– Türkiye Business Confidence (Oct)
– Türkiye TCMB Interest Rate Decision
– Eurozone Consumer Confidence (Oct, flash)
APAC
Thailand Market Holiday
– Australia RBA Bulletin
– South Korea BoK Interest Rate Decision
– Singapore Inflation (Sep)
– Taiwan Industrial Production (Sep)
– Hong Kong SAR Inflation (Sep)
Friday 24 Oct
Australia S&P Global Flash PMI, Manufacturing & Services*
Japan S&P Global Flash PMI, Manufacturing & Services*
India HSBC Flash PMI, Manufacturing & Services*
UK S&P Global Flash PMI, Manufacturing & Services*
Germany HCOB Flash PMI, Manufacturing & Services*
France HCOB Flash PMI, Manufacturing & Services*
Eurozone HCOB Flash PMI, Manufacturing & Services*
US S&P Global Flash PMI, Manufacturing & Services*
Americas
– US CPI (Sep)
– US UoM Sentiment (Oct, final)
– US New Home Sales (Sep)
EMEA
– UK Gfk Consumer Confidence (Oct)
– UK Retail Sales (Sep)
APAC
– Japan Inflation (Sep)
– Singapore Industrial Production (Sep)
* Access press releases of indices produced by S&P Global and relevant sponsors here.
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Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI) data are compiled by S&P Global for more than 40 economies worldwide. The monthly data are derived from surveys of senior executives at private sector companies, and are available only via subscription. The PMI dataset features a headline number, which indicates the overall health of an economy, and sub-indices, which provide insights into other key economic drivers such as GDP, inflation, exports, capacity utilization, employment and inventories. The PMI data are used by financial and corporate professionals to better understand where economies and markets are headed, and to uncover opportunities.
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This article was published by S&P Global Market Intelligence and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global.
