Bitcoin traders holding between 100 and 10,000 BTC realized average daily losses of $337 million in Q1 2026, marking their worst quarter since 2022, according to Glassnode data.
Key takeaways:
- Bitcoin fell more than 20% the last time whales realized losses at a similar pace in 2022.
- Long-term holders are now also selling at a loss — a sign of capitulation that could point to further downside ahead.
Bitcoin “whales” and “sharks” have realized a combined $30.91 billion in losses so far in 2026, signaling significant capitulation among large holders.
Realized loss measures the total dollar value lost when Bitcoin is sold on-chain below its purchase price. Two major cohorts have driven this trend: “sharks,” holding 100–1,000 BTC, and “whales,” with 1,000–10,000 BTC.
In the first quarter, sharks accounted for average daily losses of $188.5 million, while whales added another $147.5 million per day.
Together, these large holders have realized approximately $30.91 billion in losses so far in 2026.
Their losses in Q1 2026 rank among the most severe on record, second only to Q2 2022, when average daily realized losses reached around $396 million.
In Q2 2022, Bitcoin’s price plunged more than 50%, followed by an additional 20% decline by year-end. The downturn was fueled by a series of major industry shocks — including the Terra collapse, the Celsius withdrawal freeze, and the failure of Three Arrows Capital — which triggered widespread panic and drained liquidity and confidence across the crypto market.
In 2026, Bitcoin has faced pressure from a different set of catalysts, including inflation fears tied to geopolitical tensions, concerns around quantum security, and broader strain in the AI-driven risk trade.
As a result, whales and sharks appear to be cutting losses in anticipation of further downside, increasing the likelihood of a bear market similar to 2022, with a potential bottom forming around Q4 2026.
Additional downside risk is reflected in long-term holder behavior. Data from Glassnode’s Long-Term Holder Realized Loss metric — which tracks losses from coins held for more than six months before being sold — shows losses remaining elevated at roughly $200 million per day on a 30-day average since November 2025.
“A sustained drop in realized losses to below $25 million per day would signal a clearer exhaustion of selling pressure,” Glassnode analysts said in their weekly report published Wednesday, adding:
“A prerequisite for the base formation that historically precedes a sustainable bull market transition.”
Taken together, these headwinds have strengthened expectations of a deeper Bitcoin correction, with some analysts identifying the $40,000–$50,000 range as a potential bottom.
