While the crypto trading industry expects a bright outlook in 2026, thanks to improved regulatory clarity and growing institutional investors, Binance TH expressed concerns over the stagnant economy that could affect nationwide adoption.
Nirun Fuwattananukul, chief executive of Binance TH by Gulf Binance, said the Thai economy is expected to expand at a low rate, facing significant headwinds from external trade policies and internal structural issues.
“The outlook for the Thai economy in 2026 is fragile and decelerating with a high degree of uncertainty,” he told the Bangkok Post.
In Mr Nirun’s view, the economy will be caught in a pincer movement of Trump’s tariff shock hitting exports and an internal credit crunch where high household debt limits consumption and banks tighten lending standards.
The country’s key challenges for 2026 include a slowing global economy and rising protectionism, which will dampen external demand, he said. Indirect effects from US-China trade tensions could disrupt supply chains for intermediate goods, Mr Nirun added.
A lower interest rate environment signals a state of “economic stagnation rather than healthy stability”, he said.
Domestic political uncertainty pre- and post-election will likely delay budget disbursements and affect investor confidence, said Mr Nirun.
“Household debt remains at critical levels of more than 86% of GDP. Deteriorating loan quality, reflected through rising non-performing loans, means banks will restrict lending, stifling domestic consumption and the liquidity of small and medium-sized enterprises,” he said.
Thailand is losing its charm to competitors, such as Vietnam, due to outdated production structures, high energy costs and an ageing workforce, making it harder to attract new foreign direct investment, said Mr Nirun.
BULLISH OUTLOOK
In terms of price movements, Merkle Capital, a digital asset advisory firm regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission, projects Bitcoin to trade sideways in a range of US$70,000-94,000 in 2026.
Despite the structural progress, short-term price movements remain cautious, said Panuwit Taiyanon, senior investment consultant at Merkle.
A clear breakout above the $94,000 resistance level is needed to confirm a new bullish cycle, he added.
In its recently released “2026 Digital Asset Outlook”, Grayscale predicts that Bitcoin will reach a new all-time high in the first half of the year.
The world’s largest digital-asset focused investment platform also stated that while quantum computing presents a future risk to blockchain security, it is unlikely to disrupt Bitcoin or other digital assets in 2026.
This bullish outlook comes despite the ongoing Bitcoin price weakness as prices tumbled to around the $88,000-range from its peak of $126,198 set on Oct 5.
The report describes 2026 as the “Dawn of the Institutional Era” amid growing demand for alternative stores of value.
As regulation progresses outstandingly in the US, Grayscale also expects a broader range of cryptocurrencies to be offered through exchange-traded products by 2026 in addition to Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Bitcoin has traditionally followed a four-year cycle tied to halving events, with sharp drawdowns often following cycle peaks.
“Crypto asset class is in a sustained bull market. 2026 will mark the end of the apparent four-year cycle. We expect rising valuations in 2026, and we think the price of Bitcoin could exceed its previous high in the first half of the year,” the financial giant said in the report.
The firm believes that AI-linked crypto platforms and next-generation blockchains would also be interesting to watch next year.
Policy analysts also expect 2026 to be a pivotal year for crypto regulation in the US, particularly following the passage of stablecoin legislation.
Cathy Yoon, general counsel at crypto research firm Temporal, said the next phase will focus less on legislation and more on execution.
“With stablecoin legislation now passed, the real impact will come from implementation — examinations, disclosures and how these assets integrate into payments and financial infrastructure,” she said.
