Global gold prices fall sharply, but SJC gold holds near record highs as Vietnam’s VN-Index hits a new peak.
Gold prices on the international market dropped sharply in the early hours of August 15, falling through major support thresholds, while domestic gold prices at SJC and for plain gold rings remained near historical highs. At the same time, Vietnam’s stock market recorded the strongest performance globally.
As of the morning session on August 15, spot gold prices on the international market fell from $3,365 per ounce to as low as $3,330 per ounce. This marks a clear break below key support levels of $3,400 and $3,350 per ounce. For weeks, prices had fluctuated steadily in the $3,350-$3,400 range, but have now dipped into a new lower band between $3,300 and $3,350.
In contrast, domestic gold prices remained elevated. As of this morning, SJC and Doji 9999 gold bars were quoted at 123.5-124.5 million VND per tael for buying and selling. Although down slightly by 200,000 VND per tael from the previous day, the price remains at an all-time high.
Plain gold rings at SJC and Doji were being sold for around 119.1-119.4 million VND per tael.
The sharp drop in global gold prices came after the United States released its July Producer Price Index (PPI), which rose 0.9% – higher than expected. This marks the highest increase since June 2022 and instantly dampened hopes for a near-term interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve.
Over the year, core PPI rose by 3.7%, up from 2.6% previously. The higher-than-expected report slightly reduced the likelihood of a 25-basis-point rate cut in September.
Investors now estimate a 93.1% chance the Fed will lower interest rates by 0.25 percentage points on September 17, down from 99.9% the previous day, according to the CME FedWatch tool as of 10 a.m. (Vietnam time) on August 15.
Stronger-than-forecast producer inflation pushed the US dollar up 0.5% from its two-week low, while the 10-year US Treasury yield rose from its one-week bottom.
Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency market surged. Bitcoin rebounded after retreating from its all-time high of over $124,000 per BTC on August 14. Ethereum surged nearly 20% over the past week, trading near record highs of $4,650-$4,800 per ETH.
US stocks showed mixed movement. The S&P 500 index rose for the third straight session, shrugging off concerns about inflation.
Oil prices slipped slightly on August 15 after gaining 2% the previous night. WTI crude was trading at $63.9 per barrel.
Russia, the world’s second-largest oil producer in 2024 behind the US, could potentially increase oil exports if sanctions are relaxed. However, former President Donald Trump has warned of secondary tariffs against countries – mainly China and India – that continue purchasing Russian oil if Moscow continues its war in Ukraine.
In Vietnam, while SJC and ring gold remained near record highs, the stock market also surged, and the exchange rate rose to its peak. The USD/VND rate hit 26,420 VND per USD.
At 10:37 a.m. on August 15, the VN-Index climbed by 16.5 points (+1%) to 1,658 points – a new all-time high. Trading volume on the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange (HoSE) reached nearly 22 trillion VND (approx. 875 million USD).
Financials, banking, and industrial stocks continued attracting capital, with strong performances from ACB, VCB, MBB, VPB, MBS, VCG, CII, VSC, and others.
At times during the morning session, the VN-Index gained more than 20 points.
Over the past three months, Vietnam’s stock market has delivered the strongest growth globally, with a 10-day winning streak. Since bottoming out on April 9, the VN-Index has surged nearly 565 points.
Low interest rates, rapid credit growth, and robust public and infrastructure investment are driving momentum for domestic enterprises and capital flow. Maybank Securities recently projected the VN-Index could reach 1,800 points under an optimistic scenario.
However, selling pressure has increased in recent sessions.
