Bitcoin could reach half the value of gold by its next halving in 2028, with the recent surge in gold prices suggesting the cryptocurrency’s “equivalent value” could hit $644,000, according to analysts.
“We’ve long projected that Bitcoin should attain half of gold’s market cap following the next halving,” Matthew Sigel, head of digital asset research at VanEck, said in a post on X on Monday.
Gold futures recently climbed above $4,000 per ounce, setting a new record as investors flocked to the traditional safe-haven asset. Sigel noted that gold’s record high “implies an equivalent value of $644,000 per Bitcoin.”
While crypto analysts frequently compare Bitcoin to gold, the precious metal has outperformed the cryptocurrency so far this year, rising 50% amid political uncertainty, a weakening US dollar, and intermittent US tariffs.
Younger investors favor Bitcoin
Sigel added that younger investors are increasingly turning to Bitcoin as a store of value—a role traditionally held by gold. “About half of gold’s value comes from its use as a store of value rather than industrial or jewelry demand, and surveys indicate that younger consumers in emerging markets are increasingly favoring Bitcoin for that purpose,” he said.
Analyst Jordi Visser noted in June that younger generations feel the financial system “has been worsening every single year,” and their push for increased public spending could further support Bitcoin’s price.
Gold may still rise
Veteran trader Peter Brandt suggested that gold could continue climbing despite recently reaching a peak.
“Gold may go substantially higher before any meaningful correction,” Brandt wrote on X on Monday. “How much higher? No clue!”
He added, “But I am quite certain that ‘all-in’ FOMO [fear of missing out] buyers at these levels will need deep pockets in the future.”
Bitcoin also hit a fresh milestone on Monday, climbing above $126,000 for the first time. However, Bitcoin critic and prominent gold supporter Peter Schiff noted that, relative to gold, Bitcoin is still about 15% below its all-time high.
“Bitcoin would have to rise to roughly $148,000 to match its record high priced in gold,” he said. “I still think it’s too early for Bitcoiners to get excited. Until Bitcoin surpasses its gold-adjusted high, it’s just a bear market rally.”
Conversely, Joe Consorti, head of growth at Bitcoin custodian Theya, argued that the surge in gold has effectively raised Bitcoin’s “fair value floor” to $1.34 million.
