Global investment manager VanEck expects the first quarter of 2026 to offer a “risk-on” environment for investors, citing increased clarity around fiscal policy, monetary direction, and major investment themes.
“As we move into 2026, markets are operating in a landscape investors haven’t seen in years: one with real visibility,” VanEck said in its Q1 2026 Outlook on Tuesday.
On Bitcoin, however, the firm noted that the traditional four-year cycle “broke in 2025, complicating short-term signals.”
“This divergence supports a more cautious near-term view over the next three to six months,” it added, emphasizing that opinions within the firm were not unanimous, with some executives “remaining more constructive on the immediate cycle.”
A risk-on outlook generally favors higher-risk assets such as AI and tech stocks, as well as crypto. Yet Bitcoin has decoupled from stock and gold markets in recent months following the massive deleveraging event in October.
Fewer fiscal and monetary surprises ahead
“One of the most important developments for markets is the gradual improvement in the U.S. fiscal picture,” VanEck said.
“While deficits remain elevated, they are shrinking as a share of GDP from the historic highs reached during the COVID period,” the firm explained.
“This fiscal stabilization is helping anchor longer-term interest rates and reduce tail risks.”
Justin d’Anethan, head of research at Arctic Digital, told Cointelegraph that VanEck’s outlook takes a more medium-term perspective rather than focusing on immediate events.
“Price action often tells its own story and can serve as confirmation,” he added.
“With BTC rising in a low-leverage environment, it feels like a lot of last year’s fluff was taken out, leaving bulls a tad more realistic, and bears tamed in their apocalyptic prophecies. We see a lot of indicators in deep oversold territory, edging to get back up.”
“While tensions with the U.S. administration and the Fed may weigh on markets, geopolitical uncertainty combined with a broadly bullish sentiment toward risk assets appears to be positive for crypto, which is still playing catch-up,” he added.
Market outlook for H1 2026 is relatively clear
Meanwhile, Tim Sun, senior researcher at HashKey Group, told Cointelegraph that after the volatility and adjustments in late 2025, the market trajectory for the first half of 2026 has become comparatively clear.
“With the U.S. midterm elections approaching, both fiscal and financial conditions are expected to continue supporting risk assets,” he said.
“Fiscal stimulus, accommodative monetary conditions, and favorable regulatory developments collectively form a classic risk‑on macroeconomic window in the first half of 2026. In such an environment, Bitcoin and the broader crypto market stand to benefit.”
Crypto investor Will Clemente commented that “this environment is literally what Bitcoin was created for.”
“The President is coming after the Fed chair. Metals are ripping as sovereigns diversify reserves. Stocks and risk assets are at record highs. Geopolitical risk is rising.”
Analyst predicts Bitcoin will return to six figures
Michaël van de Poppe, founder of MN Fund and crypto analyst, is confident that Bitcoin will reclaim six-figure territory before the end of January.
“There has been no dip below the 21-day moving average, with buyers stepping in to accumulate Bitcoin at these levels,” he said on Monday.
“Markets have lingered in this range for an extended period, highlighting the importance of potential breakout levels,” he added, predicting that a clear move above $92,000 could push BTC to $100,000 within ten days.
At the time of writing early Tuesday morning in Asia, Bitcoin had reached the $92,000 mark after dipping to the low $90,000s on Monday.
