📉 Market Analysis and Forecast
From a technical perspective, the bias is bearish: After a rebound, oil prices failed to stabilize above the key resistance level of $60.17 and instead fell to around $58.21, indicating that bearish momentum still dominates. The $58.00 integer mark has become a key psychological support level in the near term; if it is effectively broken below, the next support level will be around $57.80. On the upside, the first resistance level to watch is $59.50, followed by around $60.30.
Fundamentals are dominated by bearish factors: The core bearish pressure stems from concerns about oversupply. OPEC+ has continued to increase production, while supplies from non-OPEC oil-producing countries have rebounded, leading to a loose market supply. In addition, the pessimistic global macro environment has left the market worried that trade tensions will weigh on economic growth, thereby curbing crude oil demand.
Short-term event disturbances: The latest developments in China-U.S. trade relations are a catalyst for short-term market fluctuations. Although both sides’ efforts to ease tensions have provided slight support for oil prices, Trump’s threat to impose high tariffs starting from November 1 constitutes a major downside risk.
Comprehensively, U.S. trading session crude oil is expected to maintain a volatile and weak pattern in the short term. The main fluctuation range can be referenced as $57.80 – $59.50. If it falls below $57.80, it may drop to $57.00; conversely, if it can regain $59.50, it is expected to test the resistance zone of $60.00 – $60.30 again.
