Cryptocurrency bettors on Polymarket were growing confident that the U.S. would take military action against Iran as President Donald Trump demanded “unconditional surrender.”
What happened: The odds for the betting contract titled “US military action against Iran before July?” jumped from 48% to 66% in the last 24 hours.
About $10.8 million has been wagered on the outcome, making it one of the hottest bets on the Polygon POL/USD-based decentralized prediction market. The market would resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. initiates a military action on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory, or against any Iranian embassies or consulates before June 30.
Polymarket, which is not accessible to U.S. residents, has courted controversy in the past for enabling betting on conflicts in the Middle East.
However, Ethereum ETH/USD creator Vitalik Buterin, who invested in the platform previously, said Polymarket doubles up as a credible news website for viewers who are otherwise exposed to disinformation on social media.
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Why It Matters: The sharp jump in odds follows a series of posts by Trump on his Truth Social account concerning the conflict.
Trump said that “we have complete and total control” over Iran’s skies, sparking fears that the U.S. may launch a joint military response with Israel.
He threatened Iran’s Supreme Leader, stating that they know his hideouts but will not eliminate him just yet. He also asked for “unconditional surrender.”
Israel has been launching strikes on Iran since Thursday of last week, but the U.S. has stayed out of the conflict thus far.
Photo Courtesy: danielo on Shutterstock.com
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