Futures are higher but there continues to be tangible angst below the surface as traders are aggressively shorting potential AI losers, while US stocks continue to fall behind the rest of the world. “It’s a paradox in that markets are holding, breaking records, yet investors remain cautious,” says Vontobel’s head of equities Jean-Louis Nakamura. As of 8:00am ET, S&P and Nasdaq futures are up 0.3%, with premarket strength in Mag7, Semis and Cyclicals while Energy and Materials underperform. It’s unclear right now which stocks will be hurt by AI, but it’s clear that traders are nervous. “The slightest miss on earnings is brutally penalized and substantial beats are required to boost share prices,” said Nakamura. Bond yield stabilize, flat to down 1bp across the curve with USD also flat. Commodities are mostly lower with Energy and Metals weaker (WTI, Precious down less than 1%) and Ags higher. Today’s macro data focus is on jobless claims and existing home sales. With the stabilization in the bond market and net positive WTD macro data, we may investors push the market higher into tmrw’s CPI where only a materially hawkish print is likely to shift the market narrative.
In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mostly higher (Alphabet +0.5%, Amazon +0.3%, Apple -0.2%, Nvidia +1.2%, Meta Platforms +0.4%, Microsoft +0.4%, Tesla +0.5%),
With US stocks lagging gains in Asia and Latin America this year, the moves underscore how sensitive the market has become to companies’ exposure to the infrastructure behind the AI boom. Memory-chip shortages and pricing are coming up frequently as topics in company earnings reports and conference calls.
“This is a year of the bullish stock market, but a very volatile stock market — and the volatility will be induced by the AI trade, which is evolving,” said Beata Manthey, head of European Equity Strategy at Citigroup Inc. “Right now we are concentrating on losers. But we also need to discover who the new winners are going to be.”
The AI winners and losers trade is playing out across the world, helping Asian markets — with a heavy concentration of AI hardware firms — extend their lead over the US. That’s left the S&P 500 ranking 69th among the 92 stock indexes tracked by Bloomberg, according to Markets Live. Among sectors, jitters over software have given the ‘old economy’ stocks in the Dow Jones Transportation Average a new lease of life.
And in single stocks, the huge memory-chip needs of AI are rippling out. Japanese chipmaker Kioxia surged after its guidance beat estimates, while Cisco shares are lower in premarket trading after saying that mounting memory chip prices are hurting its margins. Elsewhere in the AI space, Anthropic is said to be nearing the completion of a deal to raise more than $20 billion in a funding round with a plethora of big investors. And Softbank announced a near-$20 billion investment gain on OpenAI.
Since Jan. 9, there has been a larger swing for the average S&P 500 stock compared to 99% of the time over the past three decades. The 10.8% move, averaged on an absolute basis in that time, has created a windfall for investors with long dispersion positions, according to data from Nomura. US stocks appear less vulnerable than in recent weeks after hedge funds reduced positioning in January, according to JPMorgan strategists.
Traders are also keeping a close eye on key US economic data. Jobs numbers on Wednesday came in surprisingly strong, and attention now turns to Friday’s inflation report for clues on future policy moves by the Federal Reserve.
In politics, Trump’s tariff policies suffered their strongest political blow yet with the Republican-led US House passing legislation aimed at ending the president’s levies on Canadian imports. The US and Japan are closing in on the first three projects to be funded by Tokyo’s $550 billion investment vehicle, as part of their bilateral trade deal.
Out of the 346 S&P 500 companies that have reported so far in the earnings season, 77% have managed to beat analyst forecasts, while 19% have missed. CBRE, Exelon and Iron Mountain are among companies due to report results before the market open. CBRE earnings come in the face of a real estate services ‘AI scare trade’ which hit the sector on Wednesday. Earnings from Applied Materials, Coinbase and Airbnb follow later.
Europe’s Stoxx 600 rises 0.5% to 624.50, hitting a new record high on Thursday amid a flurry of positive earnings, including from EssilorLuxottica SA and Siemens AG. Financial services outperform, as Nuveen’s deal to buy Schroders Plc sends the UK asset manager soaring. Here are some of the biggest movers on Thursday:
Earlier in the session, Asian stocks climbed, poised for a fifth day of gains, on continued investor optimism over benefits for the region’s technology hardware suppliers from the artificial intelligence boom. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 0.9%, on track for its best week since September 2024. South Korea’s Kospi jumped 3.1% to extend its lead as the world’s best-performing market this year, driven by gains in memory makers Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix.
The region’s stocks are outperforming global peers this year on extended enthusiasm for AI infrastructure firms, even as doubts over high spending and potential obsolescence of older business models rattle other markets. The MSCI Asia gauge has jumped about 13% so far this year versus the 1.4% advance in the S&P 500 Index, marking its best start to the year relative to the US gauge this century. The US gauge ranks 69th among the 92 stock indexes around the world tracked by Bloomberg. South Korea is the world’s best-performing market with a 30% surge.
Elsewhere, Japanese stocks extended gains on hopes that Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s decisive election win may boost spending. Hong Kong shares fell, bucking the broader regional gain, while mainland China equities traded flat ahead of Lunar New Year holidays. There’s no trading in Taiwan through next week.
In FX, USD/JPY is down marginally on the session but well off the APAC lows as questions surface over whether the post-election yen rally is running out of steam. The Bloomberg Dollar Index falls 0.1% with losses most pronounced against the franc and kiwi. The pound was unfussed by soft Q4 GDP metrics.
In rates, treasuries hold small gains, outperforming European bonds ahead of weekly jobless claims data and 30-year new-issue auction.The US 10-yr yield is unchanged at 4.17%. Bunds and gilts are similarly contained. US yields richer by 1bp to 2bp curve with curve spreads little changed; new 10-year yield near 4.165% is 1.5bp lower on the day, slightly outperforming bunds and gilts in the sector. $25 billion 30-year new-issue auction at 1pm New York time concludes this week’s Treasury supply; Wednesday’s 10-year tailed by 1.4bp. WI 30-year yield near 4.795% is ~3bp richer than January’s, which stopped through by 0.8bp.
In commodities, spot gold and silver are giving back some of yesterday’s gains, down 0.4% and 1.2% respectively. WTI futures are down 0.1% after failing to hold onto the mild APAC bid. Bitcoin is up 0.5%.Bitcoin briefly slid under $67,000, while Japan’s super-long bonds extended their post-vote rally as Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s historic election win soothed investor concerns about fiscal policy.
Today’s US economic calendar slate includes weekly jobless claims (8:30am) and January existing home sales (10am). Fed speaker slate includes Logan (7pm) and Miran (7:05pm)
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks were ultimately mixed with a slightly positive bias amongst the major indices as the region reflected on earnings releases and the better-than-expected US jobs data, while Japan’s benchmark hit a fresh record high on return from holiday, before fading the gains. ASX 200 was led higher by strength in utilities and financials after shares in Origin Energy and ANZ Group rallied post-earnings, but with upside in the broader market capped by hawkish rhetoric from RBA Governor Bullock. Nikkei 225 swung between gains and losses, in which the index initially climbed to above the 58,000 level for the first time, but then briefly wiped out all of its gains as currency strength persisted. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed with the Hong Kong benchmark dragged lower by underperformance in the likes of Budweiser and NetEase following their earnings releases, with the latter also weighed by tech/AI-related headwinds, which dragged other large tech names lower such as Tencent, Baidu and Meituan, while AI startup Zhipu shares surged around 36% after the release of its new model. Conversely, the mainland treaded water following another firm liquidity operation by the PBoC and after China’s State Council held a session on boosting AI use, with Premier Li urging to promote the use of AI in various sectors, while there are also expectations for the US and China to extend the trade truce by up to a year during the expected Trump-Xi meeting in April.
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European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.5%) are entirely in the green, with the DAX 40 (+1.2%) leading gains and CAC 40 (+0.9%) following closely behind. On the other hand, the Dutch AEX (-0.5%) lags, weighed by Adyen and Magnum earnings. Sectors hold a mostly positive bias with Financials (+1.3%) and Telecommunications (+1.0%) leading the pack. Schroders (+28.5%) leads in financials after Nuveen agreed to purchase the company for GBP 9.9bln. Deutsche Boerse (+2.0%) is also higher, after acquiring a further 20% stake in ISS STOXX, which is expected to be accretive to cash EPS in the first full year. Movers include Siemens (+5.7%), Hermes (+1.3%) and Mercedes-Benz (-2.0%). Siemens missed top-line expectations but raised its FY EPS guidance helping shares higher. Hermes posted earnings that beat estimates and highlighted that 2026 prices increases would be lower than it was in 2025. For Mercedes Benz, the Co. guided its Adj. ROS below market consensus.
I’ve been energised by a leadership offsite for the last couple of days, so if members of my team are reading this, hopefully I won’t get it wrong and end up with team meetings today that resemble something from “The Office”. While I was in learning mode, markets put in a mixed performance yesterday, as investors weighed up a very strong US jobs report, growing geopolitical risks and a fresh decline in software stocks. On the upside, that jobs report included the biggest jump for nonfarm payrolls in over a year, which led to growing confidence that the US economy had kept up its momentum into 2026. But the print also solidified existing concerns about inflation, which got further support thanks to another jump in oil prices amidst mounting speculation about a potential US strike on Iran. Finally, today sees a symbolically important EU leaders summit on strengthening the single market. Mario Draghi is attending and his competitiveness paper will no doubt be heavily referred to. While firm commitments are unlikely, it’s an incredibly important meeting on the future roadmap for Europe so all eyes will be on what progress is made.
That jobs report was the big story yesterday, with the release proving much stronger than expected. The headline was that nonfarm payrolls grew by +130k in January (vs. +65k expected), marking their biggest monthly jump since December 2024. Indeed, it was a big contrast from fears earlier this week about a low number, as Kevin Hassett had warned on Monday that markets should expect “slightly lower jobs numbers”, albeit without specifics about when this might be. Then on top of the upside payrolls surprise, the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell back to 4.3% (vs. 4.4% expected), so the print very much leant in a more hawkish direction. Admittedly, there were some negative revisions to previous months, with the 2025 total payrolls gain revised down from +584k to +181k. But we already knew the downward revisions were coming, so markets were much more focused on the strong print for January rather than the backward-looking content.
With the jobs report coming in strongly, markets moved to price out the chance of rapid Fed rate cuts this year. For instance, the chance of a rate cut in one of Chair Powell’s final two meetings (March and April) plunged from 47% to 23%. And looking at the full year, the amount of cuts priced by the December meeting fell -7.1bps on the day to 53bps. In turn, that more hawkish profile led to a clear bear flattening in the Treasury curve, with the 2yr yield (+5.8bps) up to 3.51%, whilst the 10yr yield (+3.0bps) moved up to 4.17%.
Whilst Treasuries saw a clear selloff, equities saw a more mixed performance, with the S&P 500 (-0.005%) ultimately closing less than a basis point lower on the day. Initially, the index opened strongly, boosted by the very strong jobs report. However, there was then a fresh decline in software stocks, with that component of the S&P 500 down -2.58% on the day, including strong declines for IBM (-6.50%), ServiceNow (-5.54%), Workday (-5.66%) and Salesforce (-4.37%). Financial services (-1.35%) were under pressure on two fronts. First, AI-disruption fears weighed on asset managers, with names like Charles Schwab (-3.83%), Invesco (-3.11%), and T Rowe Price (-2.95%) underperforming. Second, the bitcoin selloff also led crypto-adjacent stocks to weaken, with Coinbase (-5.73%), Block (-6.09%), and Robinhood (-8.91%) among the worst performers in the index. So those losses offset advances for some of the more defensive sectors like energy (+2.59%) and consumer staples (+1.20%), leaving the overall index fairly flat.
In the background, oil prices continued to climb yesterday as fears mounted about an escalation over Iran. In terms of the latest, President Trump met Israeli PM Netanyahu at the White House yesterday, where President Trump said he “insisted that negotiations with Iran continue to see whether or not a Deal can be consummated.” The President later posted to social media that “Last time Iran decided that they were better off not making a Deal, and they were hit with Midnight Hammer — That did not work well for them. Hopefully this time they will be more reasonable and responsible.” So by the close, Brent crude was up +0.87% to $69.40/bbl, and this morning it’s up another +0.25% to $69.57/bbl.
Earlier in Europe, most assets had seen a relatively stronger performance, with the STOXX 600 (+0.10%) just about closing at a fresh record. That was driven by a strong gain for UK equities, and the FTSE 100 (+1.14%) was also at a new record of its own. But it was a different story across much of the continent, with the DAX (-0.53%), the CAC 40 (-0.18%) and the FTSE MIB (-0.62%) all losing ground. Meanwhile for sovereign bonds, there was a more consistent rally, but UK gilts were once again leading the way, with 10yr gilt yields down -3.0bps on the day. Otherwise, those on 10yr bunds (-1.6bps), OATs (-2.6bps) and BTPs (-1.6bps) all fell back slightly too.
Overnight in Asia, markets are looking much more positive again after the weak close on Wall Street yesterday. The KOSPI (+2.64%) is leading the way, on course for another record high, and the Nikkei (+0.25%) is also on course for a record as Japanese markets returned from Wednesday’s holiday. However, equities in mainland China have been more steady, with the CSI 300 (+0.04%) only posting a modest advance, whilst the Shanghai Comp (-0.01%) has slipped back very slightly. Meanwhile in Hong Kong, the Hang Seng (-1.15%) has posted larger declines. But looking forward, US equity futures are pointing to a stronger start, with those on the S&P 500 up +0.31%.
Looking forward, today will also see EU leaders gather in Belgium for a summit on strengthening the single market. They’ll be joined by former ECB President Mario Draghi, who wrote a report on EU competitiveness, and we heard from several EU leaders yesterday as well. For instance, French President Macron said that if the EU wanted to “transform the productivity and competitiveness”, then “the only way is to have common issuance of debt”. Separately, German Chancellor Merz said that there should be “bold” steps from the EU to reverse its decline, saying the EU should “deregulate every sector”. Our economists also have a preview for the summit here.
Looking at the day ahead, data releases include the UK’s Q4 GDP reading, the US weekly initial jobless claims, and existing home sales for January. Central bank speakers include the ECB’s Cipollone, Radev, Stournaras, Lane and Nagel. Otherwise, EU leaders will be meeting today in Belgium.
