Welcome to the US Crypto News Morning Briefing — your essential rundown of the most important developments in crypto for the day ahead.
Grab a coffee as influential crypto investors sound the alarm on what they describe as a dangerously fragile market, one propped up by short-term arbitrage flows and “dumb money” piling into spot Bitcoin ETFs without understanding the risks.
Alliance DAO co-founder QwQiao reiterated his stark outlook on X (Twitter), that the next crypto bear market will be worse than most people expect. In the original post, he argued that a large wave of inexperienced buyers has entered the market in 2025, creating the conditions for a severe flush.
“…dumb money who know nothing about crypto buying DATs and ETFs,” wrote QwQiao.
According to QwQiao, the market may require another 50% drawdown as these buyers sell off their holdings quickly, probably at a loss, usually due to panic or pressure.
Only after this happens, the Alliance DAO executive says, can a solid long-term foundation form and the Supercycle resume its course. When QwQiao made these remarks, the Bitcoin price was trading at $111,756.
Trading for $83,712 as of this writing, the pioneer crypto has already shed 25% of QwQiao’s prediction. A full 50% drawdown from $111,756 would see the Bitcoin price go as low as $56,068.
Placeholder’s Chris Burniske echoed the sentiment, warning that the sell-side pressure from DAT (digital asset treasuries) investors is only just beginning.
“The era of DAT selling has only begun. Just as we went up, so too will we go down,” he wrote, suggesting that structural flows, not sentiment, will dictate the next phase of the cycle.
The warnings emerge as analysts increasingly point to the same underlying problem: ETF inflows have been widely misunderstood, as indicated in a recent US Crypto News publication.
Recent BeInCrypto reporting highlighted how BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes believes most of the flows into BlackRock’s IBIT, still the world’s largest Bitcoin ETF, have been arbitrage trades, not long-term conviction.
Hedge funds have been buying ETF shares while shorting CME futures to capture a basis spread, creating the appearance of bullish institutional demand.
“They are not long Bitcoin,” Hayes said. “They only play in our sandbox for a few extra points over Fed Funds.”
When that basis compresses, institutions unwind the trade, triggering sharp outflows and mechanically pushing the Bitcoin price lower. Hayes argues that with these flows fading, Bitcoin “must fall” to reflect tightening dollar liquidity.
Another recent BeInCrypto report showed analysts making similar conclusions, attributing the crash not to tariffs or hacks but to the collapse of the cash-and-carry trade.
As hedge funds unwind these leveraged positions, billions worth of BTC is sold off. Those funds were never invested in Bitcoin’s long-term future. Instead, they were used for yield farming.
The convergence of these factors explains why veteran insiders like QwQiao and Burniske are sounding unusually dire warnings.
Far from a typical correction, they argue the market is entering a cleansing phase where structural leverage, inexperienced capital, and arbitrage distortions must be flushed out.
Here’s a summary of more US crypto news to follow today:
