The US CEO stated that Bitcoin is tracking its four-year halving cycle and that the price could pull back to levels around $40,000.
Bitcoin (BTC) and altcoins have experienced sharp declines since October. While the BTC price has fallen to $60,000, losses are also growing in altcoins.
While there is no clear prediction about the market’s direction, some analysts argue that the bottom may have been reached at $60,000. Conversely, others suggest that the bottom hasn’t been reached and that further declines are possible.
According to Coindesk, Transform Ventures CEO Michael Terpin states that Bitcoin is following its four-year halving cycle and the price could pull back to the $40,000 level.
Speaking at the Consensus Hong Kong 2026 Conference, Michael Terpin stated that Bitcoin is following almost exactly the same historical halving cycle and patterns.
“According to Bitcoin’s halving cycle, we are exactly where we need to be.”
According to Terpin, the peak of the Bitcoin bull market will come in the fourth quarter of 2025, consistent with previous cycles.
The renowned figure, noting that the decline experienced after October is consistent with historical cycle patterns, believes there is still a way to go before the bottom.
“I think people believe that the bottom for Bitcoin will be at $80,000 and that this will only be a six-week bear market. But that seems ridiculous to me.”
Terpin even noted that predictions that Bitcoin would bottom out at $60,000 and immediately resume its rise were premature, saying, “That seems a bit early.”
Terpin did not offer a clear prediction on how long the bear market would last. At this point, he avoided predicting a year-long decline, stating that the market could face another pain point.
In this context, he argues that Bitcoin could fall to levels as low as $50,000 or even $40,000 before a bear market bottom is formed.
While Terpin didn’t give a precise timeframe, he drew a close parallel between the current cycle and the previous one, stating, “The peak was on November 10, 2021. The trough was right after FTX declared bankruptcy on November 10, 2022. That’s exactly one year later.”
