However, market analysts warn that the reality is much more complex, with many macro factors ready to blow up the hopes and dreams of bulls.
As the clock ticks into the last quarter of the year, traders start to itch for better gains. Luckily for crypto investors, many believe in the mighty legend of “Uptober,” a month in which their bags will pump harder than ever before.
The concept of Uptober stems from Bitcoin having a green October for nine out of the past 10 years, Iliya Kalchev, an analyst at crypto platform Nexo, told Decrypt. The analyst pointed to 2017 and 2021 as particularly good years, with BTC rallying 50% and 40% respectively.
Analysts at investment bank Compass Point explained in a report shared with Decrypt that these October gains have historically been supported by September’s weakness in the markets, making any gains look outsized.
That said, we didn’t exactly get the “Red September” that was expected. While some coins are indeed down, the Compass Point report pointed out that this year’s September has seen Bitcoin’s price rise nearly 5%, meaning any Uptober gains will be even more impressive.
Uptober illustrates just how seasonal financial markets can be, with similar phenomena such as the “Santa Claus rally” in equities being noted to Decrypt by analysts at KuCoin Ventures. Red September is much the same.
“Part of it is seasonality, summer lulls end, funds rebalance into Q4; and part of it is now psychological, self-fulfilling,” the project lead at trading platform gTrade, who goes just by Nathan, told Decrypt.
As a result, Uptober has become a cultural meme deeply embedded in crypto folklore. Scrolling social media as September comes to an end, you’ll find countless traders praying that October will answer their prayers for profits.
“We’ve been through enough pain, we need Uptober,” crypto influencer The DeFi Edge wrote on X. “I remember last year how everyone was so hyped about October, calling it Uptober, and the trenches were so hot, boiling, there was a whole meta about it,” influencer Ram also posted.
However, some analysts warn that much of this is merely social media hype, and that institutions are paying attention to much more than just a meme.
“Retail traders often cite seasonal memes like Uptober on social media as part of the market’s cultural identity. These narratives can influence short-term sentiment and trading behavior at the margins,” Jake Kennis, senior research analyst at Nansen, told Decrypt. “Professional traders, however, are more likely to anchor decisions in fundamentals, macro conditions, liquidity, and technical setups, rather than calendar-based memes.”
In other words, it’s “more community psychology than trading strategy,” he added.
Similarly, KuCoin Ventures said that it doesn’t build its investment thesis around seasonal narratives like Uptober. That said, the analyst told Decrypt, the fund does observe positive investor sentiment, as it may signal that they’ll flow capital into the market — calling it a self-fulfilling prophecy.
An analyst from Bitfinex told Decrypt that they combine the hype of Uptober with “positioning models” and “complex strategies.”
“This October arrives with unique tailwinds: the Fed has just pivoted to easing, U.S. spot ETFs are consistently absorbing supply (daily flows averaging $150M+), and BTC has held key support at $110,000 despite record-sized options expiries,” the Bitfinex analyst said. “Macro risk (tariffs, inflation stickiness) could create volatility, but structurally the setup is strong.”
As a result, KuCoin Ventures said it is “cautiously optimistic” for a green October, while Kennis from Nansen widened that view to being “cautiously optimistic” for the whole of Q4.
Ultimately, while history suggests that October is a reliably bullish month and experts believe that the setup is strong, predicting the short-term is inherently unreliable due to the chaotic nature of the markets — and the world.
KuCoin Ventures highlighted potential macro risks with Fed policy and geopolitics that could potentially nuke any Uptober gains. For example, President Trump has stated that Hamas has “three or four days” to respond to his plan for the future of Gaza, which could potentially end in escalated tensions or peace in the region. Either outcome will likely impact the markets.
“Whether it’s Uptober or Downtober will depend less on superstition and more on how these forces align,” Kalchev from Nexo told Decrypt. “Still, history suggests you’d be brave to bet against Bitcoin in October.”
