Lamm says the company’s valuation remains attractive, with NexGen’s lower enterprise value to EBITDA ratio compared to competitors like Cameco, suggesting potential for further growth in 2026.
S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) uranium share NexGen Energy Ltd (ASX: NXG) has been on a tear since plumbing multi-year lows on 9 April.
How much of a tear?
Well, at the 9 April close you could have bought NexGen shares for $6.51 apiece.
In early afternoon trade today, those same shares are changing hands for $14.24 each. That sees the ASX 200 uranium share up a very impressive 118.7% over the past eight and a half months.
For some context, the ASX 200 has gained 18.6% after closing near its own multi-year lows on 9 April.
The rapid share price gains also saw NexGen officially added to the ASX 200 last week, on 22 December. That was part of the S&P Dow Jones Indices December quarterly rebalance.
But with the stock having more than doubled since April, has the train already left the station on this one?
Why this ASX 200 uranium share could keep rocketing in 2026
L1 Capital’s Raphael Lamm has a bullish outlook for NexGen shares (courtesy of The Australian Financial Review).
Among his reasons for tipping the ASX 200 uranium share as a buy is the global resurgence for nuclear energy. This is being spurred by changing government policies as nations seek reliable baseload power amid the clean energy transition, and surging energy demand from power hungry AI-enabled data centres.
And this comes as new global uranium supplies remain limited.
The second reason you may want to by NexGen shares for the new year is its Rook I uranium project in Canada. Rook I is reported to host the largest undeveloped uranium deposit in the world.
The third reason NexGen shares could continue to outperform in 2026 (at current uranium prices) is its “highly attractive valuation”.
According to Lam (quoted by the AFR):
Rook I is capable of generating about CAD$2.8 billion (AU$3.1 billion) of EBITDA [earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation] at US$80 a pound uranium, which implies a 3.5 times enterprise value to EBITDA multiple. By comparison Cameco, the largest Western producer of uranium, currently trades at about 28 times EV/ EBITDA.
NexGen shares on the uranium bull run
NexGen isn’t the only ASX 200 uranium share to amply reward shareholders since the 9 April market dip.
Taking a look at a few of the other top Aussie miners, the Deep Yellow Ltd (ASX: DYL) share price has surged 136.1% since 9 April. And Paladin Energy Ltd (ASX: PDN) shares have rocketed 140.3%.
But, in a reminder of the importance of diversification, Boss Energy Ltd (ASX: BOE) shares have tanked 37.8% since 9 April. That follows a significant downgrade in the production expectations at Boss Energy’s Honeymoon uranium project, located in South Australia.
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