Blockchain data indicates market cooling as macro pressures loom.
Before the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision on Trump-era tariffs, global markets experienced renewed uncertainty. This uncertainty also spilled over into the cryptocurrency market, causing Bitcoin’s price to decrease by approximately 6-7% from recent highs, dropping below $92,000. The likelihood of the court finding the tariffs unlawful, priced at around 70%, weakened investors’ risk appetite. Amid ongoing discussions, one scenario flagged by seasoned analysts was the potential for a deeper correction to the $60,000 level for Bitcoin.
ContentsStrengthening Scenario for Bitcoin’s $60,000 PriceInsights from Blockchain Data and Macro PressuresStrengthening Scenario for Bitcoin’s $60,000 Price
Market commentators suggest that the $60,000 level is not an arbitrary threshold. Projections like the “measured move” and “equal legs” used in technical analysis are common methods for calculating potential decline distances following peak formations. Measuring Bitcoin’s previous wide trading range reveals targets concentrated in the $60,000 to $63,000 range below the breakout point. Historically, old consolidation zones acting as strong support lend technical credibility to this range.
Peter Brandt, a seasoned analyst who has observed market cycles for over four decades, recently argued that Bitcoin may be entering a downward trend. According to Brandt, if the price compressed within an ascending wedge and channel structure loses support, a sharper pullback risk emerges. Several popular analysts sharing similar views suggest that this correction may progressively deepen over the next 6 to 8 months.
Insights from Blockchain Data and Macro Pressures
Aside from the technical outlook, on-chain Blockchain data also points to market cooling. CryptoQuant’s “Net Realized Profit/Loss” indicator reveals that previously strong profit-taking has diminished. Recent data showing the indicator nearing zero and occasionally turning negative indicates more cautious investor behavior. Historically, this scenario aligns with periods of weakened demand with the market attempting to digest selling pressure.
On the macro front, the upcoming decision by the U.S. Supreme Court emerges as a crucial factor. Should the tariffs be revoked, it could affect global trade balances and subsequently change perceptions about risky assets, such as Bitcoin and altcoins. While a return of Bitcoin’s price to the $98,000-$102,000 range could reignite upward momentum, losing the current channel support could make the $73,000 and ultimately the $60,000 levels more plausible targets. The market stands at a crossroads, awaiting both the legal outcome and the technical break points.
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