Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks in Washington on July 30.
U.S. stock-market futures were little changed Sunday, after stocks rallied Friday on fresh hopes of a September rate cut by the Fed.
Dow Jones Industrial Average futures (YM00), S&P 500 futures (ES00) and Nasdaq-100 futures (NQ00) were down slightly late Sunday. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) rose, and was trading around the $13,000 level. Front-month West Texas crude (CL.1) was up in Nymex trading while gold (GC00) inched down.
Stocks surged on Friday, after Fed Chair Jerome Powell said a rate cut may be warranted, due to growing concern about a sluggish labor market. While falling short of a promise of a September rate cut, Powell’s comments were seen as opening the door for one or more cuts this year, giving investors a fresh dash of optimism.
Traders are pricing in an 85% chance that the Fed will cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points in September, up from 75% a week ago, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
“Although we think that a September cut is not quite a done deal, the barnow seems sufficiently high for the data to surprise positively that we shift our longstanding on-hold call for the Fed to a base case for 25bp rate cuts at both the September and December meetings,” analysts at BNP Paribas said in a Friday note.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA shot 1.9% higher Friday, closing at a new record high of 45,631.74. The S&P 500 SPX advanced 1.5%, and the Nasdaq Composite COMP rallied 1.9%. The S&P 500 ended the week 0.3% higher while the Dow rose 1.5%, with each gaining for a third straight week, according to Dow Jones Market Data. But the tech-heavy Nasdaq slipped 0.6% on the week.
Still, there’s the upcoming August’s jobs report to consider, as well as more inflation data due before the Fed’s September meeting, leading some analysts to temper their outlook. John Velis, Americas macro strategist at BNY, told MarketWatch on Friday that the latest surge may just be a “late-summer rally” that could become “more complicated” as the market enters September and October.
Read more: The stock market soared following Fed Chair Powell’s speech. Why it might just be a ‘late-summer rally.’
Investors will now turn their attention back to corporate earnings, with AI chipmaker Nvidia Corp. (NVDA) due to report quarterly results Wednesday. Tech stocks struggled last week, amid growing concerns of an AI bubble, and Nvidia’s earnings will be seen as a bellwether for the industry.
“Nvidia is no longer just a stock – it’s the proxy for AI, the heartbeat of the Magnificent Seven, and the gravitational center of the S&P 500,” Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management, wrote in a weekend note. “One way or another, this print decides if the benchmarks fly or fall.”
The effects of the Trump administration’s widespread tariffs on consumer spending will also be in focus this week, as retailers such as Gap Inc. (GAP), Ulta Beauty Inc. (ULTA), Williams-Sonoma Inc. (WSM) and Petco Health and Wellness Inc. (WOOF) report earnings.
Read more: Low expectations for retailers and ever-rising expectations for Nvidia in this week’s round of earnings
-Mike Murphy
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