The probability of a U.S. government shutdown before February 14 has jumped sharply, adding fresh pressure to the already fragile crypto market. On prediction platform Polymarket, traders are now pricing in an 84% chance of a shutdown, reflecting growing concerns that Congress may fail to pass a federal funding bill before the deadline. The odds have surged by 66% in recent days, signaling heightened fiscal uncertainty in Washington.
As government shutdown risks rise, Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market continue to decline. Total crypto market capitalization has dropped 1.8% to $2.3 trillion, while the Crypto Fear and Greed Index has slipped from 10 to 9, indicating extreme fear among investors. During the last partial government shutdown, Bitcoin fell below $70,000, and traders are now wary of a similar move as macroeconomic uncertainty intensifies.
Market analysts remain divided on Bitcoin’s next move. A popular crypto analyst known as The Hunter warned that the current correction could deepen, highlighting key levels such as $67,000 for Bitcoin, $1,950 for Ethereum, and $81 for Solana. He suggested that continued selling pressure could potentially drive BTC below $50,000. In contrast, analyst Axel Bitblaze compared the current market structure to patterns seen in 2024 before a significant rally. He believes Bitcoin may trade within a broad $60,000 to $80,000 range, with sharp pullbacks and brief rallies creating choppy conditions rather than a rapid recovery.
From a technical analysis perspective, Bitcoin remains under pressure after failing to hold gains near the $95,000 to $100,000 resistance zone earlier in 2026. The price has since broken below the $85,000 to $90,000 consolidation area, accelerating the decline toward the $60,000 to $70,000 support range. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently sits near 30, approaching oversold territory, which could signal a short-term bounce. However, the MACD remains deeply negative, reflecting strong bearish momentum. Immediate support stands at $65,700, followed by the key psychological level at $60,000, while resistance is now clustered around $70,000 to $72,000.
