Tyler Winklevoss says crypto sentiment is so pessimistic that he feels “optimistic,” even as the exchange he runs with his brother Cameron Winklevoss undergoes a significant reset and Winklevoss Capital appears to have steadily reduced its Bitcoin holdings over the past year.
Despite his public bullish stance, onchain analytics from Arkham Intelligence show the Winklevoss Capital wallet has cut its BTC exposure from roughly 23,000 coins in February 2025 to fewer than 11,000 by February 2026, when Bitcoin traded around $66,357.
Gemini’s latest filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on Tuesday reported expected net revenue of $165 million to $175 million for 2025, up from $141 million in 2024. The exchange also said it served approximately 600,000 monthly transacting users, marking a 17% year-on-year increase.
At the same time, projected operating expenses have jumped to between $520 million and $530 million, up from $308 million the previous year. On Feb. 5, Gemini announced plans to cut up to 25% of its workforce and exit the United Kingdom, European Union, and Australia to focus on the U.S. and Singapore markets.
Less than two weeks later, the exchange parted ways with its chief operating officer, chief financial officer, and chief legal officer, with Cameron Winklevoss assuming additional responsibilities.
Shrinking market share and strategic pivot
A Sunday report by Bloomberg revealed that Gemini’s spot market share fell to approximately 0.1% of global crypto trading in January, down from 0.6% in June 2025. Its market value has also declined sharply, dropping from nearly $4 billion at last year’s public listing to under $700 million.
Citing sources familiar with the matter, Bloomberg reported that Gemini had cut additional U.S. staff and was now focusing on a strategic pivot toward a new Commodity Futures Trading Commission‑regulated prediction markets platform, alongside custody and crypto credit card services.
Gemini’s 8‑K filing confirmed the senior leadership changes, noting that Cameron Winklevoss would take on many duties of the outgoing COO, while interim executives assumed the CFO and general counsel roles.
Bleak market sentiment adds pressure
Gemini’s restructuring comes amid one of the gloomiest stretches of sentiment in the crypto market.
Miners like Bitdeer have been liquidating their BTC holdings, U.S.-based spot Bitcoin ETFs have posted losses for the past five weeks, and popular sentiment indicators such as the Crypto Fear & Greed Index have sunk to “extreme fear” levels. Google searches for “Bitcoin going to zero” have also spiked to their highest point since 2022.
Despite the pessimism, a small group of high-profile investors remain bullish. Japan’s Metaplanet has continued its BTC accumulation strategy, repeatedly increasing its holdings. In the U.S., Strategy — the largest publicly listed Bitcoin owner with 717,131 BTC — signaled its 100th BTC purchase on Sunday.
High-frequency trader and Arthur Hayes shared his portfolio on Monday, showing heavy exposure to BTC alongside gold, oil, and other assets. Meanwhile, macro analysts like Lyn Alden remain long but anticipate a grinding market rather than a sharp rally in the near term.
