Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) bull and BitMex co-founder Arthur Hayes says President Trump’s Venezuela move creates a simple trade: if liquidity increases while gas prices stay cheap, Bitcoin moons; if oil spikes, the rally dies.
The 10% Rule That Decides Elections
In his new essay, Hayes explains Trump’s 2026 midterm strategy in simple terms — print massive amounts of money to boost the economy and make voters feel rich, but keep gas prices from spiking so inflation doesn’t alienate them.
The former BitMEX CEO points to the “10% rule” that’s decided past elections: when national average gas prices rise 10% or more in the three months before an election compared to January of that year, control of the government switches parties.
That’s why Trump moved on Venezuela, according to Hayes. The country has the world’s largest proven oil reserves, and Trump believes he can flood Gulf Coast refineries with cheap crude — keeping gas prices flat while printing trillions.
Two Scenarios For Bitcoin Scenario 1 (Bullish): Trump prints money, the economy heats up, but oil prices stay flat because Venezuelan supply floods the market. More dollars chasing assets = higher Bitcoin prices. Scenario 2 (Bearish): Trump prints money, the economy heats up, and oil prices spike because Venezuelan oil doesn’t materialize fast enough. This forces Trump to stop printing to avoid an inflation crisis, killing the Bitcoin rally.
The key metric to watch: 10-year Treasury yields. When they approach 5%, it signals the bond market is panicking about inflation — and that’s when Trump has to tap the brakes.
Hayes points to Liberation Day last April as the playbook. Trump threatened massive tariffs, markets tanked, the MOVE Index spiked to 172, and within seven days Trump reversed course to calm markets.
Base Case: Money Printer Goes Brrr
Hayes’ base case is bullish. He thinks the market will believe Venezuelan oil is coming online, keeping prices down and letting Trump print freely.
“Just focus on the fact that Trump is going to run the money printer faster than Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu changes the goal posts on Iran,” Hayes wrote.
He points to 2020 when Trump printed trillions and handed cash directly to Americans.
Hayes says Trump won’t lose an election because he refused to print — he’ll print no matter what as long as oil cooperates.
Hayes also shows charts proving Bitcoin tracks dollar liquidity perfectly. When the money supply expands, Bitcoin goes up.
“Real traders must stop attaching emotions to words like socialism, communism, capitalism,” Hayes said. “Just BUY!”
Maelstrom Position: Max Long
Hayes’ fund Maelstrom entered 2026 with “almost maximum risk,” holding minimal dollar stables. The firm is long Bitcoin but selling BTC to fund privacy coin positions, betting fiat credit expansion drives altcoins higher.
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